We could see a strong El Niño later this year

Since early this year, ocean waters along the equatorial regions have been warming up. U.S. forecasters who carefully watch the trends of ocean warming and cooling have indicated that we have a new El Niño in the south-central Pacific Ocean. The Australian forecasters have an El Niño Alert, which means that a new El Niño will likely be declared very soon.

The computer models that forecast these events also point to a moderate or strong El Niño event either late this year or around the first portion of 2024. Also, there is at least a 70% chance that we’ll have the effects of this phenomenon through the winter of 2023-24.

There are indications that we’re beginning to see the effects of the warming ocean waters. For example, Australia has been turning drier over the last several months. Over the last three years, the continent was dealing with flooding rains along the eastern shores. The country is on alert as this could also mean a rough fire season late this year during their summer season. In late 2019-20, at the end of a strong El Niño, Australia suffered through one of its worst fire seasons in history.

Thanks, at least in part, to the recent warming of ocean waters, the Earth’s temperature was the highest ever recorded last week for four consecutive days. According to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the global temperatures July 4 hit 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit (17.18 degrees Celsius), breaking Monday’s record. The July 4 record was tied July 5, but on July 6, a global temperature of 63.01 degrees Fahrenheit (17.23 degrees Celsius) was reported. The previous record for Earth’s warmest day was in 2016 when the global average temperature was 62.456 degrees (16.92 degrees Celsius). Also, the average temperature last month was the hottest June ever recorded. With the additional warming of ocean waters, 2023 could be the planet’s warmest year in recorded history.

In the central U.S., a new El Niño will usually strengthen the sub-tropical jet stream. This would likely mean an increased chance of flooding rains across Southern California and the Desert Southwest. The southern U.S. should also see increasing moisture later in the summer and fall season. Conditions often turn drier to the north, especially near the Canadian border.

Here in the Northwest, El Niño years often provide less snow than normal. Sophisticated computer models and forecasters are pointing to a relatively strong El Niño event by late this year. The last time we had a very strong El Niño was during the winter of 2015-16. Cliff measured 56.2 inches of snow for the season in Coeur d’Alene. The previous winter of 2014-15, during a weak El Niño, was an open winter with only 36.5 inches of snow. The normal for a season in Coeur d’Alene is 69.8 inches.

Although the odds favor less snow in our part of the world, there have been exceptions. For example, during the strong El Niño of 2015-16, a whopping 56.2 inches of snow fell in December. In 2006-07, during weak El Niño, there was an above-normal 80.1 inches for the season as 29.1 inches fell in January of 2007. Winter 2018-19 had another weak El Niño, but we had a February snowfall record of 56.0 inches.

With ocean temperatures climbing, we have also entered a new drier-than-normal weather pattern. Since June 11, only 0.43 inches of moisture has fallen at Cliff’s station. There’s always a chance of isolated showers or a thunderstorm at this time of year, but the current pattern is pointing to a very dry July. Unless there is a big thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening hours, we’ll likely end up well below the July normal of 0.92 inches.

The tropical storm and hurricane season will often have named storms near to below normal with an El Niño. During an average year, the number of named storms in this part of the world is 14. So far, there have been three named storms, which is unusual when waters are warming along the Equatorial regions.

With ocean waters above average in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters are saying that the upcoming tropical storm and hurricane season will be close to average. The season began on June 1 and forecasters from Colorado State University are predicting 13 named storms with six of them becoming hurricanes. At least two of these predicted hurricanes could develop into major events. Although the chances of fewer named storms are lower during an El Niño, the warmer waters can still enhance the storms that do form and pose a sizable risk to land areas. By contrast, in the central and eastern Pacific basins, an El Niño event often favors more hurricane activity.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.