Could a surge in immigration affect wages in Idaho? Here’s what the research says

Elected officials, from Vice President J.D. Vance to state Sen. Brian Lenney, R-Nampa, have said that immigration lowers wages for U.S. workers.

And many Americans worry about their income and finances. 

But could unauthorized immigration hurt salaries in Idaho? 

Probably not, according to a February 2024 University of Idaho report examining the state’s economy and immigrants who do not have permanent legal status. 

There are two important reasons why. The first is that Idaho businesses compete for workers more than people in Idaho compete for jobs, the report said.

For example, in Idaho, one-third of unauthorized workers were employed in agriculture in 2021, with the rest working in construction, manufacturing, professional services, and leisure and hospitality, according to the report.

 “The reality is, ag jobs have not been filled by a domestic workforce — outside of family workers — for decades,” said Rick Naerebout, chief executive officer of the Idaho Dairymen’s Association, at a City Club of Boise forum. 

Idaho businesses and industry professionals in agriculture, construction, hospitality and health care said that actually finding workers is a top concern and challenge, the report said. 

Second, wages are not affected unless immigrants in the country without legal status are in competition with other workers for the same jobs, according to the U of I report. 

Most U.S. voters believe that immigrants take jobs that others don’t want, according to the Pew Research Center. There is no major American industry in which immigrant workers outnumber U.S. workers, the center said. However, immigrant workers outnumber U.S.-born workers in some jobs, such as manicurists, taxi drivers and drywall installers, according to Pew. 

The Statesman reached out to Lenney for comment for this story, but he would not directly address questions. 

Recently, the Congressional Budget Office said low-skilled workers’ wages are expected to grow more slowly from 2024 to 2026 due to a surge in immigration that’s occurred in the U.S. since 2021, according to The Wall Street Journal. Farm work is considered low-skilled, according to a document from MIT. 

But research has shown that across skill levels, immigrants and U.S.-born workers aren’t crowding each other out of the job market, said Samia Islam, a professor of economics at Boise State University. The jobs that immigrant workers take are not jobs that native-born workers typically want or fill, Islam said.

For example, in Idaho, many workers in the dairy industry are foreign-born, according to previous Statesman reporting, and officials with the Idaho Dairymen’s Association have said that there aren’t enough workers in the state to fill those jobs. 

Wages also probably won’t go down because a larger share of immigrants are high-skilled workers, and they increase productivity overall, Islam said. Those with a college degree made up the greatest total of immigrants in the United States, according to a working paper. 

The Idaho Department of Labor said that it didn’t have data on the effects immigration might have on wages, but that of all the people moving to Idaho since 2020, 15% had an international origin. However, that number can also include American citizens and military members abroad returning home, according to spokesperson Samuel Wolkenhauer. 

The debate over immigrants taking jobs that Americans supposedly could fill has been ongoing for decades, if not longer. For example, the H-2A visa, for temporary agricultural workers, requires employers to show that there aren’t enough U.S. workers for the job and that employing immigrants won’t hurt wages and working conditions of “similarly-employed” Americans. 

H-2A workers are also paid adverse effect wage rates, to help protect American incomes. In Idaho, the adverse effect wage rate is $16.83, according to the Idaho Department of Labor. 

In fiscal year 2024, Idaho employers were approved to bring in over 7,000 new H2-A workers, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services data.