La Niña may become official very soon

Snowfall has finally started to increase across the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest. Although Coeur d’Alene’s figures are still well below normal for this time of year, the weather patterns in the Pacific Ocean are favoring more snow across our region over at least the next several weeks, perhaps into early March. Some of the storms between now and the end of the month will likely produce some rain at times in the lower elevations.

Despite the lack of snowfall from November through January, the Inland Northwest received some much-needed moisture after one of the driest summer seasons in recorded history. Much of the precipitation, until early February, fell as rain in the lower elevations, but there has been plenty of snow in the higher mountains. This has been good news for skiers and snowboarders.

The snowy forecast for the lower elevations was primarily based on the cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA, sea-surface temperatures are below normal levels across the central and east-central equatorial regions. They also claim that “La Niña conditions are present” and are expected to persist into April of 2025.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, a new La Niña may be declared very soon, which would be the fourth one in five years. As mentioned in previous articles, a La Niña is the cooling of sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions.

Typically, a La Niña will form during the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere or the winter season in the Southern Hemisphere. In most cases, this phenomenon will peak in the late fall and then weaken later in the winter season. However, according to NOAA, for the second time in 75 years, the cooling of ocean waters, occurred during the middle of our winter, rather than the middle of summer. If the cooling persists into March, then a La Niña will be officially declared.

According to the latest computer forecast models, the recent cooling of ocean waters is not expected to last very long. By the summer season, sea-surface temperatures are forecast to start warming up. Assuming this occurs, we would then have a new “La Nada,” or in-between the cooler La Niña and warmer El Niño event.

The cooling of ocean waters along the equatorial regions is relatively weak, therefore scientists are not predicting a moderate to strong La Niña over the next two to three months. However, weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere have responded to the change of ocean temperatures as colder and snowier weather has returned to the northwestern U.S. Prior to this month, much of the frigid weather was pushed to the east of our region as “once in a lifetime storm” hit the southern U.S. with record snows reported on the beaches near the Gulf Coast.

With an expected La Nada by this summer and into the fall season, it’s unclear whether ocean waters will be warming up toward the end of the year. Many of the computer forecast models are indicating that we’ll continue to have the La Nada pattern at the end of this year and into early 2026. However, there are a few forecasts that indicate the possibility of a new El Niño forming by late in the year. We’ll have to wait and see what develops in the next 3 to 6 months.

With the recent snowfalls in the Coeur d’Alene region, our total for the season has risen above the all-time record for the most snowless winter. Here are the Top 10 most snowless winter seasons since 1895 based on Cliff’s records. All of these records were below 20 inches, so with the recent snowfalls taking Coeur d’Alene’s seasonal to around 25 inches as of the weekend, we’re not going to be this season’s top 10 list. 

1. 1933-34 — 11.2 inches 

2. 1943-44 — 13.6 inches 

3. 1987-88 — 14.1 inches 

4. 1914-15 — 14.3 inches 

5. 1941-42 — 14.4 inches 

6. 1966-67 — 15.8 inches 

7. 1908-09 — 16.1 inches 

8. 1929-30 — 17.8 inches 

9. 1899-00 — 19.4 inches 

10. 1976-77 — 19.7 inches

By the way, on the flip side, the fifth snowiest year was 1968-69, with 117.8 inches. Back in 2010-11, Cliff measured 121 inches in the fourth snowiest in recorded history. In 1915-16, the third snowiest, 124.2 inches fell. In 2008-09, the second all-time, a whopping 145.6 inches of snow fell for the season. Of course, many of us will never forget the snowiest winter season back in 2007-08, with 172.9 inches.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.