Our strong solar cycle may have peaked

Our sun has been making news headlines as we’re currently in a strong solar cycle that has generated numerous solar flares and coronal mass ejections. CMEs are a large release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the sun’s outer layer of its atmosphere. They will often follow solar flares and be released into the solar wind.

We’re currently in Solar Cycle 25, which is the 25th since 1755 when the recording of solar sunspot activity started. Since the beginning of Solar Cycle 25 in December 2019, the number of sunspots, or storms on the sun, has been the highest since 2002. For much of 2023, the average number of sunspots reported per day on the sun has been close to 140. From Jan. 1 through Oct. 25, the average has been a little higher with an average of 153 sunspots. Scientists recently stated that we are likely to have reached the peak of this cycle, but anticipate more solar and geomagnetic storms over at least the next several years. This current cycle is expected to flip to a “solar minima,” or Solar Cycle 26, around 2030.

One of the most active days, in terms of sunspot activity this year, was April 23 with 266 sunspots. The middle of July had the highest numbers with 290 sunspots July 18, which was also the highest of this cycle. In fact, July of 2024 had an average of 195 sunspots, but August was the most active month with an average of 215 sunspots. Most recently, the first four days of October had an average of over 200 sunspots.

Historically, the average number of sunspots is about 175 during each cycle when the sun is in its “maxima” phase. During the “minima” in the 2010s, the average number of sunspots was 81, but there were long stretches with no sunspots reported.

With the high number of sunspots in this current cycle, there is a concern for solar flares that would have the potential to damage electronic equipment or satellites orbiting the Earth. The most powerful solar flares are X-class storms. In May 2024, there was a series of very strong solar storms that generated extreme solar flares. When these solar flares of charged particles from the sun interact with our magnetic field, they will give off light, also known as the Northern Lights.

During a strong event, people in the northern latitudes will be treated to a magnificent light show called the Aurora Borealis, or the Northern Lights. That was the case from May 10-13 as this solar storm produced incredible light shows to very low latitudes. They were seen as far south as the Florida Keys, the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, the Bahamas and Hawaii. It was the strongest solar storm to hit the Earth in over two decades.

This Thursday is Halloween and there are no expected effects from solar storms on that date. However, there were a series of solar storms that occurred from the middle of October to early November in 2003. The peak of this activity happened right in front of Halloween on Oct. 28-29 with solar flares and CMEs. The solar flare during that time was the largest to ever be recorded by NOAA’s Environmental Satellite System. The effects of satellite-based systems and communications on Earth were widespread. The Northern Lights were seen as far south as Texas. Power outages from the magnetic storm were seen in Sweden, and 12 transformers in South Africa were damaged and needed to be replaced.

The solar storm in 2003 was so strong that it was observed by spacecraft that were in operation to study other planets. For example, the CME emission was felt by the Mars Odyssey, the Ulysses near Jupiter and the Cassini spacecraft that was heading toward Saturn. Even the Voyager 2, which was beyond our planetary system, detected the storm.

In terms of our local weather, the pattern appeared to have flipped toward the wetter side. Unfortunately for the trick-or-treaters, another storm system is expected to bring occasional rain and very chilly temperatures to the Inland Northwest on Halloween, on Thursday. Snow is likely in the higher mountains this week, and it’s possible that some of the outlying areas could see a rain and snow mix on Halloween. The wettest Oct. 31 in recorded history occurred in 2016 as 1.2 inches of rain was measured. In terms of snowfall, Coeur d’Alene did receive 3 inches on Halloween in 1971.

The early portion of November is looking wetter than normal with an increasing chance of snow in the lower elevations, so you may want to consider putting on the snow tires.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.