More hurricane records broken

Late last Wednesday, monster Hurricane Milton struck the west-central coast of Florida as a Category 3 major hurricane. It made landfall near Siesta Key, Fla., with winds near 120 miles per hour. When the storm was a Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico, sustained winds briefly hit 180 miles per hour. The devastation from this massive storm was widespread. Damage estimates may be at least $50 billion. Milton also became one of the most rapidly intensifying storms in history as it exploded from a Category 1 system to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours.

Milton was the fourteenth named storm of this tropical storm and hurricane season. The average number of named storms for each year is 14. The hurricane was also the fourth major Category 3 or higher system to strike the U.S. within the same year. That ties the record for the most major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) to hit the U.S., which occurred in 2004 and 2005. The 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were one of the most active and destructive in history. During the 2004 season, there were a total of five storms, including three major hurricanes to impact Florida in a period of six weeks. Two of the major hurricanes that year, Frances and Jeanne, made landfall in Florida just two miles apart in three weeks.

In 2004, there were 15 named storms, but in 2005, there was a record high of 31 named storms with 15 hurricanes. These included Category 5 hurricanes Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Although Katrina hit the Gulf Coast as a Category 3, the levee damage in New Orleans led to catastrophic flooding. Total damage in 2005 was just over $172 billion. The costliest year was 2017 which led to nearly $300 billion from three major hurricanes. Before 2024 comes to a close, it’s very likely that it will be another $100 billion disaster year for the U.S. Also, the long-range computer models are pointing to the possibility of another tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by late this month that could pose another threat to the southern U.S. coastline.

The 2024 hurricane season will not officially end until Nov. 30. In June, it appeared that it was going to be another year with a high number of named storms. Hurricane Beryl formed in June as a major hurricane and was the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane in history. Conditions were quiet in July, but Hurricane Debby formed in the Gulf of Mexico in early August and made landfall in Florida and South Carolina.

The peak of the hurricane season is typically in early September. However, conditions became “unusual” as there was very little activity from late August and early September. During the second week of September, conditions changed, and Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2. On Sept. 26, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on Sept. 26 as a Category 4.

Helene was the strongest hurricane to hit Florida’s Big Bend region in history. It was also the third one to make landfall in this area within the last 13 months. The flooding was also “catastrophic” as many long-time flood records, especially in North Carolina, were broken.

In addition to the heavy rainfall and high winds from hurricanes, the storm surge can also bring very heavy damage. A storm surge is a giant wall of water that piles up near the shore caused by high winds and low pressure on the ocean’s surface. The storm surge from Milton was estimated to be 8-10 feet, but there were 15-foot storm surges from Helene.

Hurricanes will often produce tornadoes before and after they make landfall. There were more than 140 tornado warnings across Florida last Wednesday, which is a new record. Typically, tornadoes that were generated by tropical systems are much weaker than ones seen in the central U.S. Most will range from an EF0 to an EF2 on the enhanced Fujita scale. However, it’s possible that an EF3 may be confirmed in Florida from Hurricane Milton as over 40 twisters were spotted. The most tornadoes ever observed from a hurricane was 49 in 2008 from Hurricane Gustav, so it’s possible that Milton will break another record.

In terms of our local weather, the much drier-than-normal weather pattern continues across the Inland Northwest. Only 0.08 inches of rain has fallen at Cliff’s station in Coeur d’Alene in October. No measurable rainfall has been reported at the Spokane International Airport.

It appears that conditions will change. There is an increasing chance of showers later this week across the region as the strong ridge of high pressure starts to weaken. The end of the month will have a good chance of moisture along with colder temperatures. We may hear about some snow in the higher mountains if this pattern develops.

With an expected La Niña by November, moisture totals in Coeur d’Alene and surrounding regions are likely to be above normal levels in November and December. Therefore, the chances of an above-average snowfall season are very good. We’ll have more details with our annual snowfall forecast.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.