Social Security's scheduled cost of living increase 'won't make a dent' for some retirees

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sherri Myers, an 82-year-old resident of Pensacola City, Florida, says the Social Security cost-of-living increase she'll receive in January “won't make a dent” in helping her meet her day-to-day expenses.

“Inflation has eaten up my savings," she said. “I don’t have anything to fall back on — the cushion is gone.” So even with the anticipated increase she's looking for work to supplement her retirement income, which consists of a small pension and her Social Security benefits.

About 70.6 million Social Security recipients are expected to receive a smaller cost of living increase for 2025 than in recent years, as inflation has moderated. 

The Social Security Administration makes the official COLA announcement Thursday, and analysts predicted in advance it would be 2.5% for 2025. Recipients received a 3.2% increase in their benefits in 2024, after a historically large 8.7% benefit increase in 2023, brought on by record 40-year-high inflation.

The AARP estimates that a 2.5 percent COLA would increase the average benefit for a retiree who receives about $1,920 a month by $48 a month starting in January 2025.

“I think a lot of seniors are going to say that this is not really enough to keep up with prices," said AARP Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Bill Sweeney.

The silver lining is that it's an indication that inflation is moderating, he said.

The announcement comes as the national social insurance plan faces a severe financial shortfall in the coming years.

The annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report released in May said the program’s trust fund will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2035. If the trust fund is depleted, the government will be able to pay only 83% of scheduled benefits, the report said.

The program is financed by payroll taxes collected from workers and their employers. The maximum amount of earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes was $168,600 for 2024, up from $160,200 in 2023. Analysts estimate that the maximum amount will go up to $174,900 in 2025.

On the presidential campaign trail, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have presented dueling plans on how they would strengthen Social Security.

Harris says on her campaign website that she will protect Social Security by “making millionaires and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes.”

Trump promises that he would not cut the social program or make changes to the retirement age. Trump also pledges tax cuts for older Americans, posting on Truth Social in July that “SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY!”

AARP conducted interviews with both Harris and Trump in late August, and asked how the candidates would protect the Social Security Trust Fund.

Harris said she would make up for the shortfall by “making billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share in taxes and use that money to protect and strengthen Social Security for the long haul.”

Trump said “we’ll protect it with growth. I don’t want to do anything having to do with increasing age. I won’t do that. As you know, I was there for four years and never even thought about doing it. I’m going to do nothing to Social Security.”

Lawmakers have proposed a variety of solutions to deal with the funding shortfall.

The Republican Study Committee's Fiscal Year 2025 plan has proposed cutting Social Security costs by raising the retirement age and reducing the annual COLA. Trump has not endorsed the plan.

Linda Benesch, a spokeswoman for Social Security Works, an advocacy group for the social insurance program, said “we are concerned about this Republican Study Committee budget, and the provisions in it that would cut benefits for retirees.”

Social Security Works endorsed Harris for president in July, in part for her decision as a California senator, to co-sponsor a bill that called on the Social Security Administration to use a different index to calculate cost of living increase: the CPI-E, which measures price changes based on the spending patterns of the elderly, like health care, food and medicine costs.

The COLA is currently calculated according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, or CPI.