THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: The risk and reward of football
Let’s talk about theoretical physics, shall we?
It’ll be a useful study, I promise.
The subjects are time and space.
You won’t need access to the collected works of Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking — just some basic knowledge of football and a dab of common sense.
Specifically, we want to focus on critical decisions in late-game situations, like stopping the clock with timeouts, and play calls on fourth down when you need about a yard or less.
There were some classic win-or-lose calls right in front of us over the weekend.
Washington State coach Jake Dickert was put on the rack for his use of time near the finish of the Cougs’ 38-35 loss at New Mexico.
Back to that in a minute.
Meanwhile, Mike Macdonald got away with a win — courtesy of Seahawks QB Geno Smith — but Coach Mac could have faced some unpleasant questions about play selections on both third- and fourth downs during what looked like it would be Seattle’s final, desperate drive.
The Hawks might as well have announced they would try smashing the center of the 49ers’ massive front when they lined up like Sumo wrestlers.
But they got stuffed twice.
IT WAS déjà vu all over again, since the Seahawks were stopped twice in those same straight-ahead tries the week before in what became a loss to the Rams.
That failure led to a loss, though.
Memo to OC Ryan Grubb: Your line isn’t yet powerful enough to impose its will on the world.
Wouldn’t you want to add some eye candy — backs in motion, spread formation, receivers split to force different coverage or (hey!) actually RUN a play that uses deception?
If a defense is packed up as tight as the 49ers were on those two plays, trying to throw Zach Charbonnet — who doesn’t have an exceptional burst — straight up the middle is like asking him to gain three yards moving Hoover Dam.
Save the tapes of these two San Francisco games, Ryan, and check all the different ways they line up, not to mention how they convert third down plays with jet sweeps and quick little throws.
This truly is all about space.
Trying to fit Charbonnet into a broom closet full of massive humans just doesn’t make sense.
On the other hand, Smith demonstrated a terrific use of space on his 13-yard gallop for that winning TD.
The play started with Geno taking a snap in the pocket, seeing a crease and taking off.
He could have kept going toward all that grass in the middle, but no, he aimed for the pylon at the left corner of the end zone.
Why did that matter?
Seattle was out of timeouts, and couldn’t risk a play that ended with a tackle inbounds, so Geno kept the sideline just to his left because, you know, “in case of emergency, break glass.”
Geno’s savvy use of space as a runner was the opposite of the Hawks getting punched at the line of scrimmage on those short-yardage slugfests.
Spread the guys out, Ryan!
OK, BACK to Wazzu, and Dickert admitting that he cost his offense a chance to win at New Mexico.
Jake claimed that his decision — refusing to call a timeout — was backed up by analytics, and that there actually is a book that lists all possible situations, and how to react in each case.
Seriously?
I really, really hope that’s not true, at least in this case.
New Mexico was driving in the final two minutes, with the Cougs clinging to a 35-31 lead but panting for breath as Lobo quarterback Devon Dampier and his quick-footed running backs were racing downfield.
On a play from the WSU 20, NaQuari Rogers bullied eight yards for a first down on the 12 with 1:27 remaining.
At that point, Dickert should have started using his three timeouts.
Dead certain.
New Mexico’s drive was going to end with a touchdown or a turnover — and if the Lobos got the lead, Wazzu needed time for QB John Mateer to respond.
Mateer had thrown for 375 yards and four TDs (plus running for another 65 and a fifth score), so there was plenty of evidence he could have given it a hell of a shot.
Dickert, though, did not call timeout.
Not after any of the four plays New Mexico ran before Dampier hopped into the end zone from a yard out — with 12 seconds left.
It seemed bizarre.
Mateer could have had almost a minute and a half to lead a drive of his own.
Dickert said afterward that WSU uses a book from a company called Championship Analytics to help with tight decisions.
“On the third-and-short, if I could go back and do it again, I’d probably rip a timeout right there,” Dickert said, “because they’re going to get all their plays in, and we needed to save time for ourselves on the back end.
“So that was probably the one thing I’d probably do again.”
Good idea.
And leave that book in a desk drawer.
Email: scameron@cdapress.com
Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press four times each week, normally Tuesday through Friday unless, you know, stuff happens.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”