Flash droughts have occurred across the country

Despite the recent moisture across the Inland Northwest, drought conditions still persist. Since July 1, 2024, only 3.92 inches of rain has fallen in Coeur d’Alene. The normal for this period is 7.11 inches. For the season to date, as of the weekend, we’ve picked up 17.53 inches, but that is over 3 inches below average. At the Spokane International Airport, 9.69 inches of moisture has fallen since Jan. 1, 2024, compared to the normal of about 12.60 inches. However, plenty of moisture is expected this week.

For four consecutive months, from July through October, Coeur d’Alene’s average precipitation has been below normal. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of eastern Washington, and northern and central Idaho are experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. In fact, the Spokane area plus all of Kootenai and the northern half of Shoshone County are in severe drought.

As of Oct. 29, over 73% of the Continental U.S. is being affected by some level of dryness or drought conditions. This is one of the highest instances of drought across the country since the U.S. Drought Monitor began taking records 25 years ago. The latest graphic shows the drier-than-normal conditions across the country.

Some of worst areas for extreme and exceptional drought conditions include southwestern Texas, southern Oklahoma, northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, the Montana and North Dakota border regions and eastern Wyoming. Last month, much of the country experienced warmer and drier than normal weather, which led to the expanding drought. After being hit hard this year by hurricanes, parts of northern Florida have not seen a drop of rain in about a month.

One of the terms that many of us do not hear about very often is “flash drought.” This is a sudden and extreme dry spell that occurs over weeks to months, rather than years or decades. This event is the result of much lower-than-normal precipitation, higher-than-average temperatures and winds. Many locations across the U.S. are in the midst of a flash drought as there has been a significant decline in moisture in recent months, especially in October.

According to an article from The Conversation, the sudden onset of a flash drought can lead to tremendous economic damage as communities or regions do not have the time to prepare for its impacts. For example, there was a flash drought in 2017 that hit Montana and the Dakotas. The rapid onset of drought and heat led to over $2.6 billion in agricultural losses.

A new study that was highlighted in an article by the BBC indicates that about 30% of the world “experienced extreme drought for three months or longer in 2023.” And, nearly 50% of the Earth’s land surface experienced at least one month of extreme drought during that year. Since the 1980s, the study shows, land areas across the globe that have been affected by drought have tripled.

Currently, drought conditions are severe in South America, particularly in the Amazon River Basin. In this region, river levels are at some of the lowest levels in recorded history. Months of extreme dryness has led to additional wildfires, and crops have been parched from the lack of water. Hydroelectric power has been interrupted in parts of northern and central South America. The Middle East and eastern and southern Africa are also suffering from severe dryness.

In terms of our local weather, it looks like a wet week as we’ll have periods of rain in the lower elevations. This moisture will certainly help ease the dryness across the Inland Northwest. These storm systems are also expected to produce some moderate to heavy snowfalls in the higher mountains above 5,000 feet.

There is a chance that we’ll see our first measurable snowfall in the lower elevations next week as a cold storm moves southward from the Gulf of Alaska. However, warmer storms are possible late in the month that would bring mostly rain in the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene regions.

Based on our climatological history dating back to 1895, when our region experiences longer than usual dry spells, we often “flip” to the wetter side of the meteorological scale. We believe that the next two or three months will bring above-normal moisture to the Inland Northwest. This should also point to a good snowpack in the higher mountains. At this point, we’re still forecasting snowfall totals in Coeur d’Alene to be between 80 and 85 inches, but if sea-surface temperatures near the Equatorial region start to warm, then our seasonal total in the lower elevations may be a little lower.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.