THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: With the Zags, all bets are off — for now

I have a friend with a fascinating occupation. 

He’s a gambler.

Not just a guy who bets on anything and everything, or who claims to have a fool-proof system for blackjack or the roulette wheel. 

In fact, he will routinely walk past the gaming tables a Vegas casino, and pay no attention whatsoever. 

“I can show you the numbers if you’re interested, but all those tables are set up to give the house an edge. 

“Can you sit down for 20 minutes and win some money? 

“Absolutely. 

“But if you stop there for 20 minutes every day, eventually you’ll lose Grandma’s priceless silverware. 

“It’s set up that way, so that you win from time to time — they want you to have fun — but over the long haul they’re going to get you.” 

That brings up an interesting question. 

If gambling operations are going to take your money over a long period of time, why in the world would my pal be betting over and over and over? 

“People don’t understand that there’s a huge difference between betting against the house — which you’re doing at a blackjack table — and competing against your fellow bettors. 

“It’s called parimutuel wagering, and it’s the reason I have a beautiful pool behind my house. 

“I’m taking money from bettors who lose just enough to pay my pool cleaner.” 

IS THERE a system involved here, a repeatable way to beat the casinos … oh, sorry, to beat the other the other bettors?  

“Sure. The system is that’s there’s NO system. I have some guidelines to stay out of trouble, but only suckers believe in systems. 

“The first guideline is that I don’t bet on pro football or pro basketball. 

“The talent levels are so close that a game can turn on whether a running back got burned toast from room service. 

“That’s like playing the lottery. 

“Good luck with that.” 

My buddy bets only on college football and college basketball, sports where he feels there are logical reasons for the outcome — reasons beyond pure talent. 

“I really like finding games with ranked teams,” he said, “or mid-majors who are good enough to recruit in the same talent pool. 

“If you learn — REALLY learn — all about that subset of teams, you can start to pick up reasons why a game can go one way or another. 

“That’s the kind of bet I like, a game with an edge that most of the public doesn’t see.” 

Fair enough. 

But I’m writing about teams that light up our readers, so basically Gonzaga and Washington State. 

What about the Zags’ big slugfest on Monday night against Baylor? 

Can we make some money on that one? 

“It’s too early in the season to call any game a lock,” by buddy said. “But there DEFENITELY are things that can give you keys.” 

CAN WE do it, then? 

He laughed and said, “No guarantees. Let’s say we figure all the reasons one of the teams might win easily — and the point spread is pretty generous. 

“You can jump on a game like that, then it goes the right way — except the winning coach runs his backups out there, and the final spread is 10 or 12 instead of 15. 

“You’re weeping.” 

Still, he said, there ARE hints and helpers to get you going in the right direction. 

Example? 

“Well, Gonzaga lost by three to USC last week,” he said. “I mean, USC is a decent team, so do we draw a conclusion from that that the Zags aren’t quite what we thought?” 

Hmm. 

I thought I was seeing a breakthrough? 

“YES!” I said. 

“NO!” he replied. 

Huh? 

“USC played like it was the Elite Eight. Mus (Coach Eric Musselman) is new there and he has all new players — so he wanted a big, exciting win with the kids jumping up and down, and this in a charity game. 

“Meanwhile, Mark (Few) played it like a scrimmage. He had guys running in and out, trying combinations you might not ever see again. 

“The Zags are almost the same team as a year ago, with the addition of Michael Ajayi, who led the WCC in scoring and went through the NBA assessment process.” 

My pal likes the Zags…a lot. 

But. 

“We’ll have to see about the defense,” he said. “The big guys, (Graham) Ike and (Braden) Huff, haven’t proved they can guard quality bigs — and they’ll be dealing with Norchard Omier all over the place inside. 

“Baylor has serious talent, with Jeremy Roach at the point after coming over from Duke, and Bahamian freshman VJ Edgecombe could be one of the best players in the country. Seriously, he’s an NBA player now. 

“I’m curious to see if Mark will try his own transfer, this defensive whiz from Tarleton, Emmanuel Innocenti, on Edgecombe. 

“This is why you love early games. There are so many questions.” 

OK, and after all that peering into the looking glass, which way do you go on Gonzgaza-Baylor. 

“I think anyone would be crazy to bet this game,” said my wizard. 

“Save your money for later in the year.” 

Email: scameron@cdapress.com 

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press four times each week, normally Tuesday through Friday unless, you know, stuff happens. 

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”