Proposition 1 could reshape Idaho elections

COEUR d’ALENE — The most closely watched contest this election is Proposition 1, a citizen-driven initiative that would fundamentally change the way Idaho elections work. If passed, it would open Idaho’s primary elections to all voters and implement ranked choice voting for general elections.

Why would we change the way we vote?

The main argument in favor of Prop 1 is that more people would get to vote.

“The basic problem in Idaho is that 270,000 voters are being blocked from participating in the most important primary elections simply because they don’t affiliate with a political party,” said Luke Mayville, spokesperson for Idahoans for Open Primaries and Sandpoint native. "When we shut out so many voters, we end up with elected officials who don’t represent the broader community." 

Prior to 2012, Idaho voters could vote in primaries, regardless of party affiliation. Prop 1 would implement a primary system that takes things a step further. If passed, any candidate could enter the primary election, regardless of party affiliation. The four candidates who receive the most votes would head to the general election, even if they're all affiliated with the same party.

Rep. Josh Tanner, R-Eagle, founder and treasurer of the political action committee One Person, One Vote, said he believes what gets called an "open primary" under Prop 1 is misleading.

“It’s not an open primary,” Tanner said. “It’s a lie. It’s a convoluted mess. You’re going to have a massive amount of people jumping in. ... The idea (of a primary election) is you’re putting your champion forward. With this, you’re just going to have a huge, convoluted election.” 

What about ranked choice voting?

In the general election, voters would rank the four candidates who were victorious in the primary election. 

If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote after the first-choice rankings are counting, that candidate wins. If not, the candidate who got the fewest votes is eliminated and each vote for that candidate is redirected to the voter’s second choice. This process repeats until one candidate receives at least half the vote.

Proponents say ranked choice voting guarantees that election winners have the support of the broader community, while opponents say the method is confusing for voters and the results are difficult to audit. 

Tanner said it would be problematic for multiple candidates from the same party to appear on the same general election ballot because many voters use party signifiers to help them decide how to vote. He said it would be difficult for voters to choose between candidates from the same party. 

“Imagine if you had four people from the Republican Party who went to the general election,” he said. “Imagine having to rank that many people.” 

It’s likely that a top-four primary election would result in a few uncontested races in the general election. Proponents of the initiative see that as a good thing. 

“Your vote will actually matter,” said Christie Wood, who sits on the Coeur d’Alene City Council. “Right now, candidates win (the primary election) and you never hear from them again until they show up on the general election ballot. They have no obligation to share their visions or values. With top-four primaries and ranked choice voting, we get to pick who is going to represent us and they have to earn our vote.” 

Who benefits?

In a word, moderates.

Travis Hagner, a political science instructor at North Idaho College, said some places that have adopted nonpartisan primaries and ranked choice voting for general elections have seen the emergence of more viable moderate, third-party and independent candidates.

“In states that are supermajorities and are not ethnically diverse, you do find evidence that it leads to a decrease in polarization and an increase in more moderate candidates,” he said, noting Idaho’s Republican supermajority and largely homogenous population. “The evidence suggests that system would produce more moderate candidates (in Idaho).” 

Whatever the concerns of incumbents, Hagner said, a state like Idaho is unlikely to see “major disruptions” to the makeup of the government. 

“The evidence doesn’t seem to support that,” he said.

What does it cost?

We don't really know.

Proponents of Prop 1 don't think changes to Idaho's voting machines will cost all that much. Mayville says he believes the changes would cost a few hundred thousand dollars, noting low-cost software that has been used in Utah is available for use in Idaho and would mean election tabulation equipment would not need to be replaced.

Opponents think otherwise, with some pointing to a letter from the secretary of state, which said Idaho may need to replace its vote tabulation systems because the systems currently certified for use in Idaho cannot tabulate the results of a ranked choice voting ballot. If all of Idaho's election tabulation equipment needs to be replaced, the letter said, it could cost an estimated $25 million to $40 million.

The fact is, no in-depth financial analysis has been performed.

What else will change?

If voters decide to change the way they vote, they may have to wait longer to get election results.

“I don’t want to exaggerate and say it’s going to take weeks (to tabulate results), because it’s not,” said Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane. “But it would take considerably longer than it has.” 

Under the current system, McGrane said, each county runs elections independently from the rest of the state. For example, Kootenai County tabulates its election results and then shares those numbers with the state so they can be combined with results from other counties. 

If multiple rounds of voting occur, it’s not possible to continue processing results in one county until that county has been combined with the others, McGrane said. The results from Bear Lake County need to be matched with the results from Kootenai County, and so on. 

Voters have grown accustomed to getting election results overnight, McGrane said. When it comes to bolstering confidence in elections, time is of the essence. 

“It could be the cleanest, best process, but the longer it takes, it seeds doubt,” he said. 

Will of the people

If voters pass Proposition 1, the fight over its implementation will likely continue. 

Some Republican legislators — including House Speaker Mike Moyle, R-Star — predict that the Idaho Legislature may amend or repeal the initiative during the next legislative session. It’s unclear how far such an effort would go. 

“I would imagine people will run a bill, but will it come out of committee?” Tanner said. “I don’t know. Will it die on the floor? I don’t know.” 

Tanner said he’s likely to back an effort to kill Proposition 1 because he believes it has been presented to voters in a deceptive way. 

“I would support a bill to remove it,” he said. 

Veterans

Wood, an Air Force veteran, said she began advocating for Proposition 1 after hearing from fellow veterans who believed their status as independent voters left them with no voice in Idaho’s most important primary elections. 

“I was really inspired by this group of veterans who were standing up and supporting other veterans and their right to vote,” she said. 

    Signs opposing Proposition 1 appear throughout Kootenai County.