The latest wildfire season forecast

The wildfire season in Canada has begun and new blazes have already broken out across the country. The Canadian government says that wildfires can occur throughout the year. However, the time when they often experience the highest activity is from May through September.

As of last week, it was reported by the Canadian government that over 130 wildfires are burning across Canada, especially in the western provinces. Thousands of people have been forced to evacuate due to many of the blazes being “out of control.”

Many of the wildfires in Canada have been the result of increasing drought conditions combined with high winds.

In 2023, Canada was affected by the worst wildfire season in recorded history. Officials say that it was even worse than the record-setting western wildfire season back in 2020. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, nearly 46 million acres burned from over 6,500 wildfires last year. This was more than six times their average as approximately 5% of the forest regions of Canada were burned. Although the Canadian wildfire season has gotten off to a tough start, most officials believe that 2024 will not be record-breaking like the one in 2023.

The heavy smoke from the blazes filtered down into the United States. Major cities in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Connecticut had air quality levels in the “very unhealthy” range of 200 to 300. However, New York City reported a “hazardous” air quality index of close to 500 in early June of 2024, which is the highest this city had seen in about 70 years. The city also had a skyline of orange. Major sporting events were either postponed or canceled, and schools were closed across parts of the Northeast. Major airlines also delayed flights due to the heavy smoke. The smoke particles were also reported across Greenland, Iceland and parts of Western Europe.

On Aug. 8, 2023, strong winds along with drought conditions toppled power lines and helped to start a major fire in Maui, one of Hawaii’s elite islands that is a popular tourist destination. Maui is a normally wet and tropical location, but last year, one of the most disastrous wildfires in U.S. history destroyed Lahaina, the island’s main tourist hub and economic center. It was Hawaii’s worst natural disaster in history.

In the U.S., 55,571 fires burned 2.633 million acres, which, believe it or not, were some of the lowest figures in recorded history. In fact, the number of affected acres was the lowest ever. The 20-year average for burned acres is approximately 7 million in the U.S. The record for wildfires occurred back in 2020 with over 96,000 blazes that consumed over 10.2 million acres.

We don’t normally think of blazes occurring in high latitudes. But, wildfires were reported within the Arctic Circle in Canada and Russia last July and August. In Europe, July was a bad month for Greece as the country experienced the worst outbreak of blazes in 20 years.

Here in the Northwest, a strong high-pressure system has weakened storm systems as they move into the region. From May 1 through 17, only one storm managed to bring Coeur d’Alene and surrounding regions any significant moisture. Most of the computer models forecasted an increase in shower activity across the region this week and continuing at times into early June.

However, the recent lack of moisture across the Inland Northwest has led to potential drought. The latest U.S. Drought Index has Coeur d’Alene on the edge of being in “severe drought.” The higher mountains to the east are currently classified as being in “severe drought,” with an isolated area having “extreme drought” conditions as the snowpacks likely peaked in the middle of March, a few weeks earlier than average.

The latest forecast from the National Interagency Fire Center, the wildfire potential for the Pacific Northwest is expected to be at near-normal levels through June. But, the chances for wildfires in the region climb to above-normal levels in the northwestern portions of the northwest in July and August.

As I mentioned in a previous article, sea-surface temperatures are cooling along the equatorial regions. Many forecasters are pointing to a new cooler La Niña event forming perhaps as early as late this summer or early fall. We still believe that moisture totals will be below average if La Niña doesn’t form too quickly. Stay tuned.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.