Oscar predictions 2024 — ‘Oppenheimer’ poised to dominate
After a long winter, the final act of movie awards season ends Sunday with the 96th Academy Awards.
For the Oscars, the year of “Barbenheimer” will be officially stamped the year of “Oppenheimer,” as Christopher Nolan’s sprawling biopic is expected to win multiple handfuls of trophies.
Even with “Oppenheimer” dominating, several categories remain too close to call, based on the precursors of the season that included the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and various Guild presentations. Among the nail-biters: Both Screenplay categories, Best Actress and Animated Feature.
Per tradition, The Press presents this handy betting guide to each of the 23 categories, as well as what this humble writer thinks should win if he had any control in this universe.
Please don’t bet real money based on picks in a Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, newspaper.
Best Picture
Consider this race over. Simply put, “Oppenheimer” hasn’t lost a Best Feature prize anywhere it’s been nominated, as the industry appears aligned to celebrate Nolan’s megahit achievement. In some ways a classic Oscar movie (performance-driven story based on true events), “Oppenheimer” is also notable for its boundary-pushing craft, particularly in editing and cinematography (hint hint for later).
In a year as predictable as this, it’d be fun to see which of the other nine nominees earns the runner-up position. With its kooky preferential ballot, a Best Picture winner needs to be ranked extremely high on a large chunk of ballots. With that in mind, second place would be a passion-driven title, so perhaps that could be the chilling, unforgettable “The Zone of Interest” or the beloved French courtroom drama, “Anatomy of a Fall.” Or a large chunk of voters wanted to keep showing the love for box office juggernaut “Barbie.” Sadly, we won’t ever get to know the final ranking.
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Director
Another true lock, as solidified by Christopher Nolan’s win at the Director’s Guild a few weeks back. The acclaimed filmmaker behind “Inception” and “The Dark Knight Trilogy” has never won, so it’s overdue at this point anyway.
Should and Will win: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Actress
Maybe the biggest nail-biter of the night, pitting British Academy Award (BAFTA) winner Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) against Screen Actors Guild winner Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon.”) Stone recently won for “La La Land,” but most consider her “Poor Things” performance to be her best work by far. Gladstone, a relative newcomer at least in mainstream film, is the magnificent center of Martin Scorsese’s towering epic. Gladstone has some momentum after her rousing speech at the recent Screen Actors Guild (SAG). Couple that with Stone’s recent win and it might be enough to give Gladstone the edge. But it’s a real toss-up at this point.
Should and Will win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Actor
A couple weeks back, this category also seemed like a close race pitting Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) against Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”). Then Murphy won the BAFTA (fairly expected). Then Murphy won at SAG (when many thought Giamatti had the stateside advantage). It’d be foolish to bet against those stats at this point. Still, Giamatti remains a strong spoiler opportunity.
Will win: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Should win: Paul Giamatti
Supporting Actress
Simply put, Da’Vine Joy Randolph can’t lose. Her performance in “The Holdovers” has won every major precursor.
Should and Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Supporting Actor
Ditto for Iron Man. Robert Downey Jr. is beloved in the industry and his memorable turn in “Oppenheimer” is an irresistible opportunity to celebrate his career. Second place: Ryan Gosling is never quite Kenough.
Should and Will win: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Adapted Screenplay
Uncertainty swirls around screenplay categories this year. Yes, “Oppenheimer” can win here, though the screenplay (by Nolan) isn’t quite as strong as, say, the direction (by Nolan). “Barbie,” which campaigned for most of the season in the Original Screenplay category, got designated into the Adapted category by the Academy. Meanwhile, Cord Jefferson’s sharp and funny “American Fiction” won the BAFTA, and voters are looking for somewhere to celebrate that film.
The hangup here, of course, is that voters also want to celebrate Greta Gerwig somewhere for “Barbie” (she co-wrote the film with Noah Baumbach), especially after Gerwig missed out in the Director lineup. This is the only real shot for “Barbie” to win a top prize, but that applies to “American Fiction” too. It could be either of those, or “Oppenheimer” if it dominates even more than expected.
Will win: “American Fiction”
Should win: “Barbie”
Original Screenplay
Another tough category even without “Barbie” in the mix. “Anatomy of a Fall” won at BAFTA, and its overperformance in securing Oscar nominations indicates strong support. “The Holdovers” is equally loved, but it already has a guaranteed winner in Supporting Actress (plus a shot at Actress). “Anatomy” winning here means supporting Justine Triet, who also earned a Director nomination for “Anatomy.”
Should and Will win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Animated Feature
Hayao Miyazaki’s acclaimed “The Boy and the Heron” and visually dazzling blockbuster “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” essentially split all the major precursors this season. Spidey’s win last week at the Producers Guild (PGA) tips my prediction slightly in its direction.
Should and Will win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Documentary Feature
Many of the year’s more notable documentary titles missed the cut entirely with the Academy, leaving longtime frontrunner “20 Days in Mariupol” with a clear runway. This category creates surprises though, so watch out for something like “Bobi Wine: The People’s President,” a movie with a huge presence currently on Disney+.
Should and Will win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
International Feature
Since France didn’t select “Anatomy of a Fall” for its entry into the category, the other International Best Picture nominee has this completely locked. “Zone of Interest” is a worthy winner.
Should and Will win: “The Zone of Interest”
Cinematography
Should and Will win: Hoyte Van Hoytema’s work on “Oppenheimer” but shout out to Rodrigo Prieto on “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Editing
Should and Will win: “Oppenheimer,” which blended multiple timelines with astonishing style.
Production Design
Somewhat of a toss-up between “Poor Things” and “Barbie,” though “Poor Things” hit with BAFTA and seems to have the momentum.
Will win: “Poor Things”
Should win: “Barbie”
Costume Design
Another race between “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” with “Barbie” *probably* holding the edge here.
Should and Will win: “Barbie”
Sound
Likely another win for “Oppenheimer,” but THE sound mix of the year belongs to “The Zone of Interest.”
Will win: “Oppenheimer”
Should win: “The Zone of Interest”
Visual Effects
Without “Oppenheimer” in the lineup, basically any nominee could win. “The Creator” won most of the precursors, but it still seems like most people barely remember that movie. Watch out for a monster-sized spoiler: “Godzilla” accomplished pure spectacle on a tiny budget.
Will win: “The Creator”
Should win: “Godzilla Minus One”
Makeup and Hairstyling
As ambivalent as I am about “Maestro,” even I can admit that old age makeup on Bradley Cooper looks incredible.
Will win: “Maestro”
Should win: “Poor Things”
Original Score
Should and Will win: Ludwig Goransson’s work on “Oppenheimer,” but please take a moment to acknowledge the late Robbie Robertson and his equally fantastic score for “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Original Song
This is probably the only guaranteed Oscar of the night for “Barbie,” and even then, it’s not entirely clear which “Barbie” song will prevail. The likely winner is the hauntingly gorgeous Billie Eilish ballad, but Ryan Gosling is expected to perform “I’m Just Ken” on the telecast regardless.
Should and Will win: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
Animated Short Film
As usual, I defer to those who have watched all the shorts. Online pundits seem to think it’s a race between “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” and “Ninety-Five Senses.” For name recognition alone, I’m predicting “War Is Over!”
Documentary Short Film
A little more spread out among the online predictions, so it’s basically a 1/3 chance if you pick between “The Last Repair Shop,” “Nai Nai & Wai Po” and “The ABCs of Book Banning.”
Live Action Short Film
This should be a slam dunk for Wes Anderson to finally earn an Oscar, here for his Netflix short, “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.” However, some voters probably feel like such a celebrated director shouldn’t be winning in a category intended for up-and-coming filmmakers. Anderson should already be an Oscar winner for his past work, so why not course correct when you can?
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Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com.
This image released by Universal Pictures shows Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss in a scene from "Oppenheimer."