Airline turbulence

With all of these wild weather patterns across the globe, it should be no surprise that we’re hearing more about airline turbulence. Most of us heard about the recent turbulence disaster with a Singapore Airlines flight May 21 from London to Singapore. While cruising at 37,000 feet, it was determined that the plane suffered a “rapid change” in gravitational force that resulted in a sudden drop of over 177 feet in about 4 seconds. This force resulted in many injuries and one death as passengers were thrust upward in the airline cabin. The plane did descend 6,000 feet, but it was a controlled descent as it needed to divert to Bangkok for an emergency landing.

For those who fly, turbulence is very common but can lead to flight anxiety. We will feel these “bumps” when the aircraft moves through the air that is “chaotic” and “disturbed.” Most of the turbulence experienced from flying is usually over mountains, near storms, and moving through upper-level jet streams. The currents of air are like a fluid that can move up and down. It can also change direction and speed, which results in frequent airline turbulence.

Thunderstorm activity is one of the main issues that result in flight delays. Pilots are very good at diverting around these huge storms, but airports will prohibit takeoffs and landings if severe weather is overhead. However, when traveling from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere, or vice-versa, the aircraft has to fly through the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, which is located near the equator. This part of the world is a large area of low pressure that experiences widespread thunderstorms. It’s almost a guarantee that some kind of turbulence will be experienced. I’ve crossed this region a few times and always knew when we were over the equator, but in all cases, my flying experiences were fine.

One of the worst types of turbulence for pilots is “clear air turbulence.” This is caused, mostly at high altitudes, when bodies of air masses moving at different speeds come together. This type of event is nearly impossible to detect with the naked eye and conventional radar as the skies are clear. This phenomenon is certainly unpredictable but is typically more common during the winter months.

According to an article by ScientificAmerican.com, NASA is currently working on solutions to help pilots “anticipate and avoid” clear air turbulence. They are looking to eventually use infrasonic microphones on the ground that can pick up extremely low frequencies that are produced by turbulence hundreds of miles away. In the meantime, pilots of most airlines will talk to one another and provide information on potential upcoming turbulence for other flights on the same route.

Severe turbulence, like the Singapore flight, is not very common. Airplanes are built to handle some of the worst cases or turbulence. In addition, new technologies, sophisticated onboard instruments and pilot training have helped to reduce these issues to a minimum.

Amazingly, there are an average of about 100,000 flights across the globe each day. This includes passenger, military and cargo flights. About 90% of these journeys are passenger. According to FlightRadar 24, the greatest number of flights in a single day was 134,386 on July 9, 2023. Some have speculated that figure will be surpassed late this year.

I’ve had a number of trips on an airplane and I’m not as much of a nervous flyer as I used to be. I do remember one trip in the early 1990s when I was on a flight with Cliff, and we were heading into a thunderstorm. He was sitting in the window seat, and I was in the middle. He looked out and saw the large billowing clouds and said, “I think we’ve had it.” I was always nervous about flying and my response was quick and fairly loud as I replied, “We’ve had it?!” I think half the plane heard me as there soon became deafening silence. Shortly after, we went through the thunderstorm and the plane was shaking and dipping. It was a wild ride, and I was very glad to get on the ground. The pilot got a nice round of applause when we landed, probably because I terrified half the plane. Cliff and I had a good laugh over that incident years later, but it didn’t seem so funny at the time.

In terms of our local weather, our precipitation total for May ended up below the 2.37 average as 2.02 inches was measured at Cliff’s station. With early week storms, June is expected to start out wet across the Inland Northwest. The long-range computer models continue to indicate that we’ll have more showers, and possible thunderstorms, at times through at least the middle of the month.

By late June or July, we do expect to see drier and hotter weather develop across the region. Sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions are cooling fast, so the summer heat this season may not be as intense as what we’ve felt over the last several years.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.