THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: A break from the frustration that is the Mariners

You excited about the All-Star game tonight? 

Me, too. 

We’re going to have some friends over, grill a few burgers, wash down a couple of cold beverages — then take the boat out on the lake. 

The temperature will be tickling something around 95, but July was invented for nights like this. 

We can just sit out there, let the food and drinks settle in, feel comfy as the boat rocks just a little gently. 

Wait! 

You didn’t think I was pumped for the All-Star game because I was planning to WATCH it? 

Oh, no. 

The pure joy of this All-Star week is that we get a reprieve. 

Taking the boat out, and staying far from all informational devices (even risking a bit of sunburn), means major league baseball might as well be in Mongolia. 

Ah, heaven. 

We’re free from enduring the torture of watching the Mariners creep just one more deep breath from winning a game — even scratching out just two runs or so — then having the whole thing explode like a fire in a trash bin. 

No, there’s none of that this week. 

A MONTH ago, these same Mariners had a 10-game lead in the AL West. 

Now, after four days in the cave someplace to lick their wounds, they’ll resume play on Friday night with that teeny one-game advantage over Houston.  

You ask: How could a team take such a dive that a massive lead in gone in weeks? 

What’s gone wrong? 

The answer, sadly, is that the Mariners didn’t tumble off a cliff or anything like that. 

I’m sorry, but it’s worse than that. 

This is the same team that had the 10-game lead. 

The only difference is that Houston came to life, began winning as we always expected, and shot upward like a shark exploding from the deep. 

And the Mariners? 

Nada. 

I’m afraid if you spend a few hours digging into statistics and some of that metrics ju-ju, you’ll find that the Mariners are an average team that can’t hit when it matters. 

They stay above water courtesy of that terrific pitching rotation, and Andres Munoz closing deals when he gets a chance. 

Look, I hate going through advanced statistics, and actually using the Pythagorean theorem (yes, really) to sort through the life and times of Jorge Polanco. 

By the way, it’s amazing that last year, Mariners second baseman Kolten Wong was pretty close to the worst player in the major leagues. 

So, they released Wong. 

And now Polanco is vying for the same depths. 

How do they find these second basemen who were living, breathing players until they got to Seattle? 

It’s bizarre. 

OK, as much as this is NOT my gig, I have to share some of these numbers that ruined my breakfast. 

I suspect you’ll forget about looking for playoff tickets. 

THESE stats come from Baseball Reference. 

There are countless other sources and platforms (probably conjured up by physicists and NASA engineers in their spare time), but I can barely understand the numbers and symbols on one of them — and Baseball Reference is considered reliable. 

Just so you know, what I learned about the Mariners is just the tip of the iceberg. 

The band is still playing on the Titanic.

Let’s start with something easy: You know, of course, that the Mariners struggle to hit much with runners daydreaming in scoring position. 

In fact, they are 21st in MLB with a .721 OPS, and every team below them will be blown to pieces at the trading deadline. 

The good news (if you look at things this way) is that they’re not the White Sox, with their nearly invisible OPS of .603 with runners on second and/or third. 

The Sox don’t even bother to use the phrase scoring position. 

Anyway. 

My favorite stat that turned up came in a category called Win Probability, and to sum up one of the lists, the result is a number or runs gained (or lost) that a hitter will produce, given the situation with runners on base, or not. 

In other words, zero is an average major league hitter in that spot, and you can expect no gain or loss from his at-bat. 

SHOCKER: Cal Raleigh has the highest Mariners expected run production at a whopping 8.3, with Victor Robles (and his limited plate appearances) next at 5.1. 

Now, we get to the meat of the issue. 

No one else has a significant positive run probability. 

Julio Rodriguez is at 0.8, and J.P. Crawford, 0.7. 

The following everyday players are all minus producers: 

Luke Raley (-1.0), Ty France (-2.4), Josh Rojas (-3.6), Dylan Moore (-4.0), Mitch Garver (-6.0), Mitch Haniger (-9.0) and, or course, our friend Jorge Polanco (-10.8). 

In case you’re wondering, there are more stats involved to tell us how many games this team should win (it’s around .500 with AVERAGE pitching). 

The numbers, though, suggest the Mariners need spectacular pitching to stay anywhere near a playoff chase, and specifically the bullpen has to toughen up. 

If Gregory Santos can get outs at the rate, say, equal to Ryne Stanek, they could paddle to the finish line. 

With two trades in the next two weeks. 

Obviously. 

Email: scameron@cdapress.com 

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press four times each week, normally Tuesday through Friday unless, you know, stuff happens. 

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”