Donald Trump's grip on Republican politics is put to the test in ice-cold Iowa's leadoff caucuses

By STEVE PEOPLES, THOMAS BEAUMONT and HANNAH FINGERHUT
Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa — Voting is set to begin Monday night in icy Iowa as former President Donald Trump eyes a victory that would send a resounding message that neither life-threatening cold nor life-changing legal trouble can slow his march toward the Republican Party's 2024 nomination.

The Iowa caucuses, which are the opening contest in the months-long Republican presidential primary process, begin at 8 p.m. EST. Caucus participants will gather inside more than 750 schools, churches and community centers to debate their options, in some cases for hours, before casting secret ballots.

While Trump projects confidence, his onetime chief rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is fighting for his political survival in a make-or-break race for second place. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, stands in DeSantis' way. The two have competed aggressively in recent weeks to emerge as the clear alternative to the former president, who has alienated many Americans and could end up being a convicted felon by year’s end.

“For me, it’s really about character,” said Darla De Haan, a psychotherapist from Pella, explaining why she is leaning to Haley. “I want to see people who have integrity, who keep their word. … I kind of get a sense when you’re around someone, if they’re going to do what they say.”

Hans Rudin, a 49-year-old community college adviser from Council Bluffs, said he has supported Trump in the past but is now aligned with DeSantis: “I absolutely love a lot of the things (Trump) did, but his personality is just kind of getting in his way.”

Nonetheless, polls suggest Trump entered Monday with a massive lead in Iowa as Haley and DeSantis duel for a distant second because of voters such as Kathy DeAngelo.

“Trump is a Christian. He’s trustworthy. He believes in America. And he believes in freedom,” said DeAngelo, a 71-year-old a retired hospital administrative employee who came to see the president Sunday in sub-zero weather. “He’s the only one.”

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are also on the ballot in Iowa, as is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign last week.

With the coldest temperatures in caucus history and dangerous travel conditions in virtually every corner of the state, the campaigns are bracing for a low-turnout contest that will test the strength of their support and their organizational muscle. The final result will serve as a powerful signal for the rest of the nomination fight to determine who will face Democratic President Joe Biden in the November general election.

After Iowa, the Republican primary shifts to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina over the coming weeks before moving into the rest of the country this spring. The ultimate nominee won't be confirmed until the party's national convention in July, but with big wins in the opening contests, Trump will be difficult to stop.

Trump's political strength heading into the Iowa caucuses, which come 426 days after he launched his 2024 campaign, tells a remarkable story of a Republican Party unwilling or unable to move on from him. He lost to Biden in 2020 after fueling near-constant chaos while in the White House, culminating with his supporters carrying out a deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol. In total, he faces 91 felony charges across four criminal cases, including two indictments for his efforts to overturn the election and a third indictment for keeping classified documents in his Florida home.

In recent weeks, Trump has increasingly echoed authoritarian leaders and framed his campaign as one of retribution. He has spoken openly about using the power of government to pursue his political enemies. He has repeatedly harnessed rhetoric once used by Adolf Hitler to argue that immigrants entering the U.S. illegally are “poisoning the blood of our country. And he recently shared a word cloud last week to his social media account highlighting “revenge,” “power” and “dictatorship.”

His campaign trotted out some high-profile conservative populists to greet Iowans in Fort Dodge.

“I want to tell you how much the world is depending on Iowa tonight,” said Kari Lake, who is running for the Senate in Arizona. She was joined by U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Matt Gaetz of Florida.

“I truly believe that God has placed each and every one of us here at this moment, for this moment to save this country," said Lake, who grew up in Iowa.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before the caucuses found Trump maintaining a formidable lead, supported by nearly half of likely caucusgoers, compared with 20% for Haley and 16% for DeSantis, who are in a close battle for second. Trump is also viewed more favorably than the other top contenders by likely caucusgoers, at 69% compared with 58% for DeSantis and 48% for Haley.

Trump used his Truth Social site to knock Haley. Her campaign answered that Trump's diatribes, some of them contradictory, prove he considers her a threat.

Haley began the day in central Iowa by encouraging some of her caucus precinct captains to “speak from the heart” as they make their statements on her behalf before votes are cast.

Trump predicted he would set a modern-day Republican caucus record with a margin-of-victory exceeding the nearly 13 percentage point victory that Bob Dole earned in 1988. Still, Trump played down expectations that he would draw a majority of the total vote.

The temperature in parts of Iowa on Monday could dip as low as minus 14 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 26 degrees Celsius) while snow drifts from Friday's blizzard still make travel hazardous across the state.

Forecasters warned that “dangerously cold wind chills” as low as 45 degrees below zero Fahrenheit were possible through noon Tuesday. The conditions, according to the National Weather Service, could lead to “frost bite and hypothermia in a matter of minutes if not properly dressed for the conditions.”

The winter weather, intimidating even for Iowa, will make an already unrepresentative process even less representative. Only a tiny portion of the participants will be voters of color, given Iowa's overwhelmingly white population, a fact that helped persuade Democrats to shift their opening primary contest to South Carolina this year.

Iowa's caucuses are also playing out on Martin Luther King Day, a federal holiday.

Last month, some campaigns were expecting close to 200,000 caucus participants. Now, many wonder whether the 2024 turnout will exceed the 118,411 Republicans who showed up in 2012. Still, each of the campaigns is claiming a powerful get-out-the-vote operation.