To be meaningful, statistics can’t exist in a vacuum.
A few weeks ago, I shared a handful of studies indicating a disconnect between actual rates of violent crime (relatively low), and public perception (that they aren’t). Some analysts blame misinformation spread by social media and unobjective sources, which friend and former Kootenai County Sheriff’s Office Capt. Dan Soumas does not dispute.
However, the 27-year law enforcement veteran pointed out that my limited column did not paint a complete picture of current realities. While long-term statistics confirm drops in violent crime rates across the nation, the truth about crime rates, he told me, is harder to pin down.
“Depending upon who you get your news from, the crime rate sky is falling or everything is improving just in time for another national election,” Soumas wrote in an email. “My experience and skeptical self tell me there are other factors at work that… cause me to question the official numbers.”
The experiences he and other officers have shared with the Press offer a broader perspective:
Less confidence, less reporting
As Soumas wrote, crime statistics only reflect what’s reported by citizens and what he called “proactive policing.” Thinking back to the murder of George Floyd and a string of similar, highly publicized tragedies around the nation, protests in large cities and public discussions swelled over the last few years, undermining public confidence.
Re-evaluation of any relationship, especially one so important as community-police interaction, is healthy. Yet with passions flaring so high, honorably performing police were also swept along in that swath of anger and distrust, and felt its effects. Soumas said, “… citizen and law enforcement feedback told me even here police felt and were less supported.”
In some communities, that phenomenon may impact crime reporting. A 2016 Cato Institute survey indicated those less confident in law enforcement said they’d be less likely to report a crime they’d witnessed.
Another factor impacting statistics is the way information is presented. Soumas said the FBI has changed the way crime statistics are organized in its database, so depending on the skill of the researcher, the data pulled may not reflect a complete picture.
A complex relationship
As reported by Forbes in February 2023, confidence in the quality of law enforcement training dropped to a historic low of 39%, consistent with national Gallup poll trends since 2020. However, this may be rising again; in October a Gallup worldwide poll showed a slight rise in public confidence in police generally.
That’s the public side. What about the police experience?
According to a 2022 national review of research compiled by the Illinois Justice Information Authority and reported by Rand, police work can have a profound effect on officers, impacting stress levels, health, and the job itself. A Police1 survey called “What do cops want?” found most choose the profession to help people and get the most job satisfaction when they do. When they feel less supported, stress increases and they feel “tired of the perceived presumption that cops are wrong,” the survey reported.
Some departments have been trying new community-oriented policing experiments to strengthen positive interactions for the benefit of all sides, creating or increasing partnerships with nonprofits and community groups to help mitigate risks and address issues such as mental health crises and homelessness-related problems in situations where police are called. Some have had great success; others less so (with variations in how they operate).
Proactive policing
Declining confidence in the police has an understandably negative impact on officers and sometimes, on policies. In recent years, Soumas said, departments backed off on proactive policing such as traffic and “investigative” (i.e., stop-and-frisk or Terry stops), which he said produce statistically significant discovery of criminal activity.
Whether such changes result in different crime rates seems to depend on location and other factors. In some jurisdictions such as a widely cited, large study in New York, an increase in the number of such stops had no impact on crime rates.
However, a 2022 Notre Dame-Columbia University study of various jurisdictions noted that when an increase in stops was combined with an increase in the number of patrol officers, that combination did result in a drop in serious crime rates.
Even with this lengthy addition, the subject of crime rates and public perceptions is only barely grazed. Police-community relations, interactions, policies and crime are as endlessly complex as man himself. Regardless, the discussion and an open willingness of both the public and the entire justice system to continually evaluate how to mutually support one another is vitally important to a healthy, evolving society.
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Sholeh Patrick is a columnist for the Hagadone News Network. Email sholeh@cdapress.com.
