Hot temps, drought have meteorologists worried about the rest of Idaho’s wildfire season

The 2024 wildfire season is barely at the halfway mark, yet an especially dry, hot, and active summer has already resulted in 2024 wildfires burning over 4 million acres nationwide.

The Pacific Northwest, in particular, has had its fair share of notable wildfires. Even though this year’s major fires so far haven’t occurred in Idaho, Treasure Valley residents couldn’t escape the constant smoke throughout July. The Northwest wildfire season typically peaks in early July, according to the National Weather Service, and lasts until early September. 

But if the largest wildfires aren’t originating in the Gem State, why has it been so smoky, and what can we expect for the rest of the season? 

As the calendar ticked into July, southwest Idaho seemed to be in the clear throughout the first half of the month. Until the smoke arrived. Idaho’s 2024 wildfire season began in mid-July when smoke from two fires in northern California and eastern Oregon began blowing eastward.

Those early fires were followed by the Cow Valley and the Durkee Fires in eastern Oregon near Interstate 84. As of Thursday morning, the Cow Valley fire was 99% contained and had burned 133,490 acres, according to federal wildfire tracker InciWeb. The Durkee Fire is only 58% contained and burned through 293,882 acres; the fire has also resulted in the closing of I-84 on multiple occasions.

The worrying issue for many this summer is that the 2024 wildfire season ramped up much earlier than usual, National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Parker told the Idaho Statesman. The latest large wildfire of the summer still sending smoke Boise’s way is the Park Fire in northern California. The wildfire started on July 24 and has quickly become the 5th-largest in California history, burning 392,480 acres while only 18% contained as of Thursday. 

Idaho itself hasn’t had to contend with any significant fires yet. The Bench Lake Fire in the Sawtooth National Recreation Area gained attention not for its size but for its location. On Thursday, the 2,595-acre fire was 85% contained but was only a mile from Redfish Lake and Redfish Lake Lodge, a popular tourist destination. The Gwen Fire in northern Idaho has been one of the state’s largest wildfires this year, burning 28,805 acres as of Thursday morning.

As of July 30, the National Interagency Fire Center had recorded 27,982 wildfires that have burned 4,247,895 acres nationwide.\

This year’s acres burned already surpass the total for 2023 when wildfires burned 2,693,910 acres — but 2023’s number is also historically low. From 2013 to 2022, a U.S. Congress wildfire report states that 61,410 wildfires occurred annually and impacted an average of 7.2 million acres. Parker said this year’s wildfire season has started strongly because of drought and scorching temperatures.

“The last 25 years in the West climatologically has been the driest 25-year period in at least 1,200 years,” Parker said. 

This summer alone, Boise endured its fifth-warmest June on record and third-warmest July. Across those two months, Boise received just 0.62 inches of rain, the historical average being 0.96 inches. Drought conditions have allowed “fuels” such as grasses and fallen trees to become incredibly dry, making it easier for fire to spark up and spread. 

“Grass is a short-time fuel because it dries out so rapidly. But then, of course, you’ve got maybe a large tree that’s been sitting down for a couple of years,” Parker said. “And those things are called 1000-hour fuels. “And the 1000-hour fuels are extremely dry, much drier than they normally are at this time of year,” Parker continued. “So that’s why fires, like the one in California, got going in a forested area.”

Unfortunately, it’s not going to get much better for Idaho.

Although it’s near-impossible to predict future wildfires, this August is set to be another hot and dry month in Boise. The Climate Prediction Center, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, creates long-term forecasts for the United States. The CPC forecasts up to a 70-80% chance of above-average temperatures in Idaho and a 40-50% chance of below-average precipitation.

What do those numbers mean? Boise typically sees 0.75 inches of rain in August, an average high of 94 degrees at the start and 85 degrees by the end of the month. If the CPC’s forecast holds, Boise residents can expect to see under an inch of rain and high temperatures comfortably in the 80s and 90s. The Weather Service forecasts a high of 106 degrees on Friday and has issued an excessive heat warning.

    It’s likely to be much hotter and drier than usual in Idaho this August, aiding to worse wildfire conditions. Climate Prediction Center