Our city-by-city winter of 2023-24 snowfall predictions

Every year in mid-autumn, Cliff and I issue our annual city-by-city snowfall predictions for North Idaho and surrounding areas of the Inland Empire.

For the 2022-23 snowfall season, we measured 83.8 inches of snow for the season, which was an above-average snowfall total for Coeur d’Alene. Since 1895, the normal snowfall is 69.8 inches.

The day with the most snowfall for that season occurred Nov. 30 as 13.1 inches fell in northwestern Coeur d’Alene. A healthy 7.3 inches of snow fell March 10. There was also plenty of snow in late December as we had a brilliant White Christmas, as over 16 inches of snow was on the ground Dec. 25.

Last year, we were in the middle of a cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature pattern, La Niña, in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. During these events, snowfall totals across the Inland Northwest are often higher than average.

Many of us remember that during the harsh winter of 2007-08, when there was a very chilly and strong La Niña sea-surface temperature pattern and very few sunspots, Cliff gauged an all-time record 172.9 inches of snow on Player Drive. The next winter of 2008-09 was the second snowiest on record in Coeur d’Alene with a whopping 145.6 inches.

The two winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 back-to-back produced an incredible 318.5 inches of snow in town, more than 100 inches greater than the previous two-year total of 217.6 inches combined in 1915-16 and 1916-17. It’s very unlikely that we’ll experience another winter season like 2007-08 for a long time, but as we’ve been saying, anything is possible.

Then, by extreme contrast, thanks to a warm, wet “El Niño” phenomenon in the waters of the eastern Pacific, our total snowfall of the entire winter of 2009-10 was a mere 18.4 inches, a whopping 51.4 inches below the normal on Player Drive of 69.8 inches. What a difference a year makes, weather-wise and otherwise.

For this winter season, ocean waters are warming up across the Equatorial regions. We currently have a moderate El Niño event with a good possibility of this phenomenon becoming stronger during the winter season. In addition to the warmer waters along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, there are also warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures across much of the Earth’s oceans. Therefore, after a good snowfall year in 2022-23, combined with the rapid warming of ocean waters, our snowfall totals for Coeur d’Alene and surrounding regions are expected to be below normal levels.

Also, with this new type of pattern, the chances for a White Christmas this year are lower. However, there have been years that we’ve seen good snows in December during an El Niño. With a drier-than-normal early fall season, there is the possibility of increased moisture late in the year. It all depends on temperature.

1. The area ski resorts should measure between 150 inches at Mt. Spokane to as much as 300 inches of snow at Lookout Pass along the Idaho/Montana border.
2. Priest Lake: 68 to 73 inches.
3. Spirit Lake: 65 to 70 inches.
4. Twin Lakes: 63 to 68 inches.
5. Bonners Ferry: 63 to 68 inches.
6. Rathdrum: 62 to 67 inches.
7. Sandpoint: 61 to 66 inches.
8. Wallace: 60 to 65 inches.
9. Athol/Garwood: 59 to 64 inches.
10. Hauser Lake: 58 to 63 inches.
11. Kellogg (town): 57 to 62 inches.
12. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 55 to 60 inches.
13. Hayden (town): 50 to 55 inches.
14. Newport, Wash.: 50 to 55 inches.
15. NW Coeur d’Alene: 49 to 54 inches.
16. Fernan Lake: 47 to 52 inches.
17. Dalton Gardens: 46 to 51 inches.
18. St. Maries: 45 to 50 inches.
19. Hope: 45 to 50 inches.
20. Kalispell, Mont.: 44 to 49 inches.
21. Coeur d’Alene (Downtown near The Coeur d’Alene Resort): 40 to 45 inches.
22. Post Falls: 39 to 44 inches.
23. Plummer: 36 to 41 inches.
24. Worley: 35 to 40 inches.
25. Harrison: 35 to 40 inches.
26. Missoula, Mont.: 34 to 39 inches.
27. Spokane (South Hill): 32 to 37 inches.
28. Spokane Valley: 31 to 36 inches.
29. Bayview: 31 to 36 inches.
30. Spokane International Airport: 29 to 34 inches.

As usual, I reserve the right to adjust these seasonal snowfall predictions after we see what happens with the current warm El Niño by mid-December. Stay tuned.

In terms of our local weather, a very cold air mass will be moving over the region later this week. There is some moisture associated with this system, so we’ll likely see snow in the mountain areas. There’s also the possibility that it will be cold enough to produce some measurable snow in the lower elevations. This will also be the time for our first major freeze in the lower elevations. Our full moon cycle is expected to produce more interesting weather across the region.

Another storm system is expected to bring additional moisture in early November. However, this one appears to be warmer, but we could see more snow in the higher mountains.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.