Idaho economy: Running hot

COEUR d'ALENE — Economic headwinds are fiercely blowing throughout Idaho and the rest of the country.

Rising interest rates, inflation and other challenges are evident and prevalent.

"We don’t want to minimize the impact of these problems, but when you have such a strong labor market as Idaho, and when you have wage growth, you have a lot of resiliency in the face of these headwinds," Sam Wolkenhauer, a labor economist with the Idaho Department of Labor, said Thursday during his presentation, "North Idaho: Resisting Analytic Anarchy" at the Inland Northwest Partners' Economic Forecast Fall Meeting at The Coeur d'Alene Resort.

Despite the headlines and conversation around economic troubles, the Gem State is shining.

"Nationally, the economic climate is very uncertain, rather ambiguous and hard to parse out," Wolkenhauer said. "But in Idaho, it’s not. In Idaho, everything is wonderful. We’re kind of like this oasis. You think it’s a mirage because it’s all shimmery and you get close and you realize it’s this beautiful lush garden in the midst of an arid desert."

Wolkenhauer reported Idaho is averaging 2,700 new jobs per month — nearly twice as many as the 1,400 average jobs per month the state experienced prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Here in Idaho, we’re just this outstanding sort of freight train from Hades headed for the right corner and there’s nothing that can stop us, this completely unstoppable force of job creation and economic expansion,” Wolkenhauer said.

Idaho's consumption growth was at 17% in 2021 and 12% in 2022.

"We understand that inflation has deleterious economic impacts, but we look at Idaho and you would be forgiven for wondering, 'Uh, what inflation and what crisis there was facing the consumer?' when you continue to have a growing population that spends more and more on a per capita basis as we (experience) faster and faster wage growth," he said. "This is the condition of analytic anarchy. We have cross-currents in the data."

Looking at confidence surveys and the consumer price index, it would seem consumers aren't too happy about current conditions, Wolkenhauer said.

"But then you look at their actual behavior, and they're like wild animals," he said. "As well all know, the goal of economics is to maximize consumption. This is what we like to see."

Inland Northwest Partners is a nonprofit created to build strong economic bases among the communities of its members, which include more than 300 business and community leaders from eastern Washington and North Idaho.

The Economic Forecast Fall Meeting also included presentations by Grant Forsyth, senior economist with Avista Corporation — "Eastern Washington: Growth with Imbalances" — and "Disinflation, Legacies and Experiments" with John W. Mitchell of M&H Economics. Inland Northwest Partners Board Chair Paul Kimmell shared community reports, as well.

Info: inwp.org