Marty and Max: Are we in a double-dip housing recession?
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The big question on everyone’s mind is: when will home sales turn around? Are we on the cusp of a double-dip housing recession, or are there signals that 2024 might see a recovery in the housing market?
According to our experts, when we talk about “housing recession” we make a distinction between transaction volume — the number of home sales, which the industry cares about — and home prices — the value of the homes, which consumers care about. These are not driven by the same factors. This year has been a housing recession, and we’re on pace for fewer than 4 million home sales in 2023. But at the same time, we’ve had a soft landing for home prices. Home prices eased back off the very peak of the pandemic frenzy, but even though we have very few home sales, home prices are not falling. In fact, home prices are up a fraction this year, and the early data for 2024 says the same pattern is imminent.
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