THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: The expert odds aren't quite with Seahawks

I was confused.

Okay, okay, no giggling over your coffee cups.

This is a real, honest-to-goodness puzzle concerning the Seahawks, and I was baffled trying to figure it out.

Stop me if any of the pieces I’m putting together here don’t seem correct.

At first, I thought I just didn’t understand the numbers, or I was misinterpreting them.

Since then, though, I’ve talked to a couple of people who’ve been around pro football a long time, and they suggest there is an answer.

Maybe.

Let’s start with some known facts …

The Hawks went 9-8 in the regular season last year, made the playoffs, and then were knocked out by San Francisco — a team that might have gone to the Super Bowl with a healthy quarterback, and a group that most forecasters believe will be near the top of the NFL in 2023.

Next …

We just watched the draft, and virtually EVERYONE who studies such things applauded Seattle’s 10-player class.

On a grading scale, various experts put the Seahawks in a nice range from A to B+ to, well …

I couldn’t find anything lower than that.

AS USUAL, the draftniks questioned the choice of a running back (UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet) in the second round, which they believe is too early.

Even then, most conceded that Seattle grabbing Kenneth Walker III in the same round a year ago turned out to be pretty good business.

Other than the running back question, no one found any massive mistakes in the way the Hawks went about drafting talent and then need — while managing to find players who fit Pete Carroll’s unique culture.

Predictably, Pete and his coaches not only were thrilled with their additions (including several undrafted free agents), they believe they’ve got a squad that’s notably better than what we saw a year ago.

And let me repeat …

That was a playoff team.

Carroll fully expects to battle the 49ers for the NFC West title, and make some serious progress in the postseason.

Imagine my surprise, then, when I discovered that folks who follow the NFL most closely — scouts, draft analysts and the oddsmakers in Las Vegas — all think the Seahawks will go backwards.

In fact, that they’ll be near the bottom of the entire league.

Down with the dumpster fire brigade.

The first thing I saw was one of those way-too-early draft stories in The Athletic.

The magazine’s resident expert, Dane Bugler, had the Seahawks picking 12th in the 2024 draft.

Huh?

That would mean we would see 20 teams with better records than Seattle.

Also bizarre …

Bugler had Arizona with the worst record overall, and the Rams drafting ninth — meaning that the Seahawks will be in a bad division with some almost automatic wins tossed in there.

In case you’ve forgotten, Seattle’s own pick this year (as opposed to the No. 5 slot acquired from Denver) was No. 20.

Now someone thinks the Hawks will slide BACK eight spots after what seems like an excellent draft?

See why I was a bit befuddled?

MY FIRST reaction was that this was just one draft expert, sailing all alone out there.

But …

Nope.

The cold-blooded oddsmakers in Vegas (BetMGM) have Seattle pegged at 66-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

To underline that number, the Seahawks are tied for 27th in the betting order with Chicago and Tennessee.

The only longer shots at BetMGM are Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Indy, Arizona and Houston.

Now, I wasn’t expecting to find the Hawks grouped with the Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals and 49ers up near the top.

Still, Pete’s got a pretty damn good football team.

The Seahawks’ main weakness last year was defending the pass, and that issue has been seriously addressed.

I couldn’t grasp this lack of respect.

So …

I talked to linemaker in Vegas, and to a respected former NFL general manager.

Put simply, I asked: What’s the deal here?

Bottom line …

There is widespread suspicion that Geno Smith had something like a miraculous season a year ago, there were signs he faded down the stretch, that the league now understands his strengths and limitations, and …

The Seahawks will suffer at quarterback.

The ex-GM even suggested that Carroll might wind up switching to Drew Lock before this coming season is over.

Both sources were POSITIVE that Seattle would have drafted Anthony Richardson if the Colts had taken Will Levis at No. 4 instead of the Florida QB.

Wow!

Those Vegas numbers (and opinions) are scary.

I guess it’s up to Pete, the Hawks — and Geno — to prove them wrong.

At least I’m a little less confused.

Email: scameron@cdapress.com

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press four times each week, normally Tuesday through Friday unless, you know, stuff happens.

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”