DC and Pixar square off in consequential box office test

It takes a lot of money for a blockbuster to be considered a “hit” these days.

With ballooning budgets that regularly exceed $200 million (plus many millions in marketing), pricy tentpole movies like “The Flash,” “Fast X” and “The Little Mermaid” require much more than a strong opening weekend in domestic theaters.

As much as moviegoing appears to be back to normal following the pandemic, theatergoing attendance in general continues its slow decline. Tickets cost too much, and the overabundance of quality television lures people away from the movies more than ever. At the very least, COVID taught audiences that they can wait a few weeks to see something new from the comfort of their own living rooms.

The most expensive movies can no longer depend on strong domestic box office either. While Disney’s “The Little Mermaid” has been immensely popular in North America, its international grosses are way down compared to some of Disney’s more recent remakes. Meanwhile, domestic audiences seem tired of Vin Diesel and the “Fast and the Furious” family, with “Fast X” performing nowhere near previous installments. But the international market has buoyed the film to the point where the franchise will chug along into its next 2-to-45 installments.

Making a credible CGI robot is apparently expensive too, and while “Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” opened decently in early June, it’s going to need relentlessly good word-of-mouth to make enough money to consider it a success. The “Transformers” franchise hasn’t exactly thrived in the good-word-of-mouth department.

The weekend presents a rare clash of titans at the box office, as studios have recently avoided doubling up on blockbusters on a single weekend post-COVID. This weekend, however, pits Warner Bros./DC’s expensive tentpole “The Flash” against Disney/Pixar’s latest, “Elemental.” Both studios desperately need a hit, and unfortunately, both will probably struggle to turn a profit against their huge budgets.

DC’s box office maladies are well-known. Its shared universe never really came together after the disappointing “Justice League” in 2017, and the studio’s most recent entries have all stalled financially for various reasons (most notably last year’s “Black Adam” and this year’s “Shazam: Fury of the Gods”).

“The Flash” is the second-to-last installment in the DC shared universe as we know it (an “Aquaman” sequel arrives later this year), and while it boasts the much-anticipated return of Michael Keaton as Batman, the movie itself faces various challenges. For one, star Ezra Miller is basically banished from promoting the movie because of his troubled personal life. Perhaps more significantly, everyone who cares about DC already knows a major reboot to the universe is imminent. The studio seems to know apathy is strong, which explains why they’ve gone all in on Keaton for the marketing.

Pixar’s “Elemental” faces its own challenges. For one, it’s living in the shadow of rival studios’ recent successes, notably the uber-successful “Super Mario Bros. Movie” and the spectacular, recent mega-hit,

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Because of the pandemic, Disney shipped three of its recent Pixar entries straight to Disney Plus. All three were more-or-less excellent movies (“Soul,” “Luca” and “Turning Red”), but even the animators at Pixar felt like the straight-to-streaming model made the movies seem less “special” to audiences and taught their fans to wait for Disney Plus.

Pixar returned to theaters last summer with “Lightyear,” which went on to become one of the studio’s biggest box office disappointments. Audiences seemed confused by the film’s concept and flimsy connection to the “Toy Story” universe. A solid enough movie on its own, it nevertheless wasn’t the version of Buzz Lightyear people wanted to see on the big screen (Buzz needs Woody, always).

Disney recently laid off 75 employees at Pixar, including the director of “Lightyear,” so obviously things aren’t so cheery at the animation powerhouse right now. “Elemental,” like all Pixar movies, carries a hefty price tag, and its original concept makes it a risky choice in a summer season full of franchise fare. It’ll need more than strong reviews to survive in this landscape.

What happens if both “The Flash” and “Elemental” fail to turn a profit? DC is already in reboot mode, so it hardly matters there, and Pixar already announced a “Toy Story 5” to restore the studio’s former box office glory. More consequently though, the studio will likely be even more discouraged from pursuing original stories and, like the rest of Hollywood, will rely on franchises and sequels to prop up the fledgling theatrical business model.

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Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com.