The 2023 wildfire season is already having a major impact

Out-of-control wildfires in Canada’s eastern province of Quebec sent huge clouds of smoke and haze southward into the northeastern U.S., parts of the Midwest and regions as far south as the Mid-Atlantic states. Last week, it was estimated that more than 75 million people across the eastern portions of the country were under air quality alerts due to the intense smoke.

According to an article from CNN, major cities in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Connecticut had air quality levels in the “very unhealthy” range of 200 to 300. However, New York City reported a “hazardous” air quality index of 484 last week, which is the highest this city has seen in about 70 years.

The smoke was so thick that the skyline of New York City was completely orange in color. Major sporting events were either postponed or canceled, and schools were closed across parts of the Northeast. Major airlines also delayed flights due to the heavy smoke. As of the weekend, the smoke particles have now been reported across Greenland, Iceland, and parts of Western Europe.

The 2023 fire season in Canada began in early May and fires across that country have already burned nearly 10 million acres of land. This is about 12 times the 10-year average for this time of year. Some of the worst blazes have been in the province of Quebec, but fires are burning across the entire country. There are currently over 400 wildfires reported in Canada with about 250 of them that are out of control.

Over the last month, temperatures in Quebec have been above average with below-normal rainfall. Despite the dry conditions, many of the fires in eastern Canada were ignited by lightning.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the chances for significant wildland fires across the Pacific Northwest increased in July. Next month, practically all of Washington State, eastern Oregon and northern Idaho southward to about Interstate 90 will have above-normal chances for major wildfires. There is also the potential for large wildfires in eastern Alaska, the Upper Midwest and northern New England in July.

In August and September, the higher-than-normal probabilities for major wildfires cover much of Washington, northern Oregon, all of northern Idaho and northwestern Montana. In California, the chances are near-normal for wildfire potential through September. However, the Golden State has seen disastrous wildfires in recent years and despite the good moisture season, it’s very possible that the late summer and early fall period could be challenging for firefighters. The Climate Prediction Center and Protective Services are predicting above-normal temperatures for much of the West, South and East Coast through the summer season.

Here in the Inland Northwest, according to a recent “State of the Air” report from the American Lung Association, our area has averaged over 250 days a year with very good air quality. However, we do get long stretches with dry and stagnant conditions that increase the levels of bad air. The smoke from the large wildfires has been the primary reason why we have poor air quality in our region.

During the summer of 2020, air quality in the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene region peaked at around 500, very high in the “hazardous” category. Vancouver, British Columbia, and Seattle, Wash., were not far behind in terms of very bad air during that time. There were a number of locations that also reported “beyond index” hazardous air quality levels above 500, likely the highest in history for parts of the Northwest due to heavy smoke from wildfires.

Many scientists say that climate change is the primary reason for the increasing bad air quality across the country and the world. Despite this reason, we have been seeing longer and hotter weather conditions during the summer months leading to increased wildfires, especially in the western U.S.

Weather patterns are continuing to change as sea-surface temperatures are warming rapidly in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Most forecasters are predicting a new El Niño by the end of July. Once it forms, the Climate Prediction Center says there is a 90% chance of El Niño conditions through the winter season. Assuming this does occur, then the chances for a snowy 2023-24 season across the Inland Northwest are much lower than normal.

In the meantime, our region has been receiving some good moisture totals after a brief dry spell. There’s still a good chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region over the next several weeks. However, as we’ve been mentioning, conditions are expected to turn drier and warmer by late this month or early July and continue through the summer season. With the new El Niño, this summer may not be quite as dry as last year. Stay tuned.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.