El Niño seems to be getting stronger

Sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions are still climbing and U.S. forecasters who carefully watch the trends of ocean warming and cooling have indicated that we have a moderate El Niño in the south-central Pacific Ocean. The Australian forecasters still have an El Niño Alert, which means that a new El Niño will likely be declared in the near future.

As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, El Niño is the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures near the west coast of South America and along the equatorial Pacific. By contrast, a La Niña is the abnormal cooling of ocean waters. From 2020 through early 2023, we had a weak-to-moderate La Niña event.

Australia has yet to declare a new El Niño as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology looks for two distinct characteristics for an El Niño classification. The first is the warming of the ocean waters near the equator, which has been happening. The second is the weakening of trade winds that blow around the Equator in the Pacific Ocean. The winds are still relatively strong, so officials have not declared an El Niño, but that could change sooner than later.

In my opinion, as well as other forecasters, we’re at least on the threshold of a strong El Niño event as ocean temperatures near the South American coastline are close to 4-6 degrees above normal. Others who follow sea-surface temperatures closely are becoming concerned this could be a record-breaking El Niño by late this year or early 2024. Whether this phenomenon becomes very strong, it’s also predicted to last into at least the spring of 2024. Beyond the spring season, many computer forecast models predict this phenomenon to weaken around the middle of next year.

In addition to the equatorial regions, ocean temperatures have been warming across the globe. We’re also seeing very warm waters across the northern Pacific Ocean and much of the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico. The Arctic regions have reported cooler sea-surface temperatures over the last month, but there are indications this region may start to warm up as well. With so much warming of ocean waters, don’t be surprised to hear about global temperatures breaking more records over the next several years.

The rapid warming of ocean waters has, at least in part, likely contributed to the extreme weather across the U.S. and the rest of the world. Extreme heat was observed this summer in Europe, Asia and the southern U.S., just to name a few spots. The Earth’s average temperature was the warmest in recorded history for July.

El Niño has also changed weather patterns in the southern hemisphere as many locations in Australia have been turning drier over the last several months. Over the last three years, the continent has been dealing with flooding rains along the eastern shores. The country is on alert as this could also mean a rough fire season late this year during their summer season. In late 2019-20, at the end of a strong El Niño, Australia suffered through one of its worst fire seasons in history.

A new El Niño will usually strengthen the sub-tropical jet stream. This would likely mean an increased chance of more flooding rains across Southern California and the Desert Southwest, especially in the fall and winter seasons. The southern U.S., which has experienced severe drought, should also see increasing moisture, including the dry and hot areas of Texas. Conditions often turn drier to the north, especially near the Canadian border.

The tropical storm and hurricane season will often have named storms near to below normal with an El Niño. During an average year, the number of named storms in this part of the world is 14. As of the weekend, there have been nine named storms. June started off with three systems, and then four storms formed within three days in August. We’re close to the peak of the season, which is usually during the first week of September and activity has been increasing in recent weeks, so the season should end up being close to normal.

In terms of our local weather, it’s very possible that after today, we’ll have seen the last of the 90-degree temperatures. Despite having a dry summer, we’ll have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like we’ll have the chance of more wet weather in early to mid-September.

However, as the region is expected to receive some much-needed moisture, the overall weather patterns for the upcoming fall season are forecast to be a bit drier and warmer than average, thanks, at least in part, to the intensifying El Niño.

The upcoming winter season, as mentioned earlier, is expected to have less snow than average. Therefore, the chances of a White Christmas across the Inland Northwest are much lower this year. But, there have been instances of a very snowy December with El Niño patterns, so we’ll have to wait and see.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.