Vandals’ plan vs. ISU: Win and wait

Today, Idaho at Idaho State, noon. Streaming: ESPN+. Radio: 92.5, 1080 AM

There’s a lot of what-ifs surrounding the Idaho Vandals (6-4, 5-2 Big Sky) this week, if they are able to beat the perennially struggling Idaho State Bengals (1-9, 1-6) today in the regular-season finale for both at Holt Arena in Pocatello.

What if Montana (7-3, 4-3) beats Montana State (9-1, 7-0) today in the Brawl of the Wild, after the ESPN College GameDay crew entertains thousands of folks on a chilly morning in Bozeman?

What if UC Davis (6-4, 5-2), which handled Idaho last week, knocks off Sacramento State (10-0, 7-0), which is tied with Montana State for first place in the Big Sky?

What if Twitter comes to a crashing halt during the fourth quarter?

OK, maybe that last one probably won’t affect Idaho’s playoff chances. But the others might, as Idaho seeks its first FCS playoff bid since 1995 — its last season in the Big Sky before moving up to what is now called FBS for the next 22 seasons.

Sac State and Montana State are obviously in the field for the 24-team playoffs, which will be announced Sunday (9:30 a.m., ESPNU).

That leaves Weber State (8-2, 5-2), Idaho and UC Davis all tied for third, and Montana one game back in sixth.

Weber State plays at Northern Arizona (3-7, 2-5) today.

According to theanalyst.com, heading into Week 12, the Big Sky has four teams in — with Idaho slated to play at Weber State in the first round. Sac State and Montana State have first-round byes.

How that plays out based on today’s results remains to be seen.

“We have to worry about us,” first-year Idaho coach Jason Eck said. “We have to play well and win the game, and we can’t get caught up worrying about Samford’s game, or Chattanooga’s game, or the UC Davis-Sac State game, because we have no control over that.

“It’s a shame, because three weeks ago we controlled our own destiny. And even last week we controlled our own destiny for the playoffs, and we’ve lost that privilege now. So we can’t get caught up in what-ifs; we’ve got to handle our business, because if we lose this game, there are no what-ifs. If we play well, we have an opportunity to watch that selection show on Sunday and see what happens. We have to focus on what we can control this week.”

This won’t be the same as last year’s Idaho-ISU finale at Holt, where both coaches had been told before the game they were not returning, and shared notes on the field after the game.

Eck has delivered Idaho’s first winning season since 2016.

In Pokey, first-year coach Charlie Ragle, the former Cal Poly assistant, has already vowed changes will be made prior to next season.

Eck said ISU has the Vandals’ attention.

“When I was at Montana State (as an assistant coach) there were some boosters who told me they’d rather go 1-10 and beat Montana, then go 10-1 and lose to Montana,” Eck said. “At first I thought they were joking, but they were dead serious.

“I know we’re going to get their best shot. I know they’ve been through some adversity, but I think they’d like nothing more than to spoil our chance to get to seven wins.”

ISU does have a standout receiver in Xavier Guillory, who has 52 catches, four for TDs. But the Bengals have used a revolving door of quarterbacks in game-one starter Tyler Vander Waal, Sagan Gronauer and Hunter Hays.

No matter who takes the snaps for ISU …

“The two teams that beat us in conference (Sac State and UC Davis) were able to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball,” Eck said. “We have to find a way to run the ball. I believe every game we’ve won in conference, we’ve outrushed the other team and the two games we lost … “