Could the Hunga volcanic eruption have influenced our weather pattern?

Since early 2022, weather patterns across our region have been very unusual, which almost sounds like a broken record.

From Jan. 7 through April 7, it was one of the most snowless periods at that time of year in Coeur d’Alene and the rest of the Inland Northwest. Then, the snows returned with about 10 inches at Cliff’s station.

Also, it was also the coolest spring seasons we’ve ever seen and we didn’t observe our first 70-degree day until May 31. Perhaps a recent major volcanic eruption influenced this crazy weather we’ve been seeing over the last five months.

On Dec. 20, 2021, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, or also known as the Hunga volcano, began its underwater eruption in the southern Pacific Ocean, which is located about 40 miles north of Tongatapu along the Pacific Rim. The eruption climaxed on Jan. 15, and according to NASA, was “hundreds of times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.” Much of Tonga was devastated from the explosion. Sonic booms and tsunamis were reported in Fiji, American Samoa, Vanuatu, New Zealand, Japan, the United States, Chile, Peru and the Russian Far West. The eruption was so loud that it was heard in Alaska, over 6,000 miles away.

Scientists say that the Hunga eruption was comparable to the massive explosion of Krakatoa back in 1883. Located in the Sunda Strait between the Indonesian of Java and Sumatra, the Krakatoa explosion was one of the most deadliest and destructive ones in recorded history. It was also the one of the loudest eruptions in modern history as the sound waves from Krakatoa traveled the globe seven times. It’s estimated that the decibels generated from that event were as high as 310. For comparison, at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, home of the Seattle Seahawks, the sound from cheering fans reached 137.6 decibels during a game against the New Orleans Saints.

Krakatoa’s eruption also led to a volcanic winter as the average temperature in the Northern Hemisphere dropped about 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit as it sent large amounts of sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere resulting in more cloud cover across the planet. It was a non-El Nino year, but record rains were soon reported in Southern California, which was linked to the volcanic event.

According to articles from Scitechdaily.com, massive explosions, such as major volcanic eruptions, produce a type of guided wave known as a Lamb wave. The wave from the Hunga event traveled along the Earth’s surface in one direction four times, then in the opposite direction three times. With today’s modern technology, scientists were able to gather more detailed data from the eruption to better understand atmospheric waves.

A new study shows that the Hunga eruption could have a temporary cooling effect of the Earth, but it will likely be very minor. Estimates range from only 0.014 degrees Fahrenheit in the Northern Hemisphere to around 0.018 degrees Fahrenheit in the Southern Hemisphere. This is largely due to the lack of sulfur dioxide ejected from the eruption, which ultimately deflects sunlight. The decrease in this gas may have been due to the eruption originating from underwater. The eruption from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in June, 1991, ejected about 50 times more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere resulting in atmospheric cooling of about a degree Fahrenheit over the following two years.

According to data from NASA, shortly after the Hunga event, hurricane-force winds and unusual electric currents formed in the Earth’s ionosphere, which is approximately 50-400 miles above the Earth’s surface. In 2019, ICON, the Ionospheric Connection Explorer, was launched to study how events like major volcanic eruptions can affect weather on Earth and conditions in space. The effects of the Hunga explosion managed to reach space, so it’s interesting to speculate on whether these recent extremes here in the Inland Northwest were at least influenced by that major eruption.

Local Outlook

In terms of our local weather, June is going to be another month with above-normal precipitation as we’ve already topped the normal of 1.93 inches. The long-range computer models are showing drier conditions later this week, but there is the chance of more showers along with the possibility of thunderstorms next week.

Eventually, our region is expected to turn much warmer and drier either late this month or into July. However, the dryness of this summer season may not last very long as we still have the cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature event, La Nina, in the south-central Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately, most of the moisture is expected to stay north of California, which is not good news for their drought situation. In fact, since the beginning of 2022, many stations in the Golden State are reporting some of the driest conditions in history.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com