Fire forecast looks ferocious

Based on current trends and assuming the planet continues to warm, the odds of more catastrophic wildfires, especially in the western U.S., are expected to increase by at least a third within the next 30 years.

It was believed that places considered to be relatively safe from wildfires, such as the Arctic and other locations, “are likely to experience a significant increase in burning,” according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program. Even tropical forests near the equator are seeing increasing odds of wildfires in the coming years.

This report also says changes in land use are likely making the fires worse. For example, logging leaves behind debris that can burn easily. Also, intentional fires that are started to clear area lands for farming are adding to the problem.

It’s still very early, but according to the National Interagency Fire Center, there are 45 new large fires or emergency responses to blazes. There are also 15 active large fires, most of them in Oklahoma, that have consumed over 116,000 acres in 2022.

That compares to slightly less than 38,000 acres burned to date in 2020 and around 25,000 acres in 2019. So far this year, there have been over 5,500 fires, the highest number to date within the last 10 years.

Despite a good start to the rain and snow season in the western U.S., much of this part of the country is experiencing severe to extreme drought. Since early this year, the dryness has expanded to cover approximately 57 percent of the U.S.

With the start of the New Year, storms in the West have practically stopped as the moisture moved into the center and eastern portions of the country. Mountain snowpacks, especially in California, have now gone below-normal levels after being 150 percent above-average late last year.

According to the latest forecasts, southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, western Oklahoma and west-central Texas are expected to have above normal chances for wildfires in the early spring. Despite recent fires in California, much of the West is expected to have normal conditions over the next several months.

However, later in the spring and summer, I do expect much of the West to go to above normal chances for increased wildfire activity, including parts of the Inland Northwest.

Perhaps the worst fire in this region occurred on August 20-21, 1910. The “Great Fire of 1910,” or the “Big Blow Up,” was a massive wildfire that burned 3 million acres in two days across northeastern Washington, the panhandle of northern Idaho and western Montana.

The extremely dry spring and summer, along with hot temperatures, helped to trigger that massive blaze. The firestorm raised public awareness of nature conservation and helped shape the U.S. Forest Service. It also displayed the bravery and dedication of firefighters.

In 1910, small fires were set from hot cinders flung from locomotives, sparks and lightning from isolated thunderstorms. Then on Aug. 20, a weather system brought hurricane-force winds that whipped many of those small blazes into the gigantic inferno.

One of the most amazing survival stories from that fire was that of Ed Pulaski, a U.S. Forest Service ranger. While fighting this massive blaze, prior to being overtaken by the flames, he led a large group of men to safety in an abandoned mine outside of Wallace. He knew that if anyone ran, there was no chance of survival.

Pulaski threatened to shoot the first one who tried to leave. The men passed out in the mine due to the smoke, but only five out of the estimated 40 didn’t survive. Pulaski was credited for saving their lives and for inventing the Pulaski hand tool still used for firefighting in wooded areas.

WHAT'S AHEAD LOCALLY

In terms of our local weather, the late February and early March weather patterns across the Inland Northwest are expected to be a little wetter. The strong high-pressure system is expected to weaken to allow more systems into our region.

The air should be cold enough at times to bring some snow to the lower elevations. However, there will be many occasions when the snow turns to rain as milder air pushes in from the south.

As of late Sunday, our current seasonal snowfall total at Cliff’s station is over 56 inches for the 2021-22 season. At Spokane International Airport, the total was a little under 36 inches, compared to their normal of 40 inches at this time of year.

We still have a long stretch to get our snowfall total to its seasonal normal of 69.8 inches in Coeur d’Alene. With the cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean, there’s a chance we’ll make it, but much of the moisture that falls is expected to come as rain, especially this week.