We got moisture but not the snow

After a dry first 8 days of December, the storm door opened up to bring above-normal moisture to most of the Inland Northwest. However, many of the air masses have been too warm for snow in the lower elevations, especially in early January.

According to Cliff’s records, the first 7 days of this month were the wettest in recorded history. During that time, a record 3.06 inches of rain fell in Coeur d’Alene. The old record was 2.83 inches set back in 1958. The average precipitation, which includes rain and melted snow, for January is 3.77 inches, so a much wetter-than-average month is expected. To date, this month has been the third warmest and the most snowless. If our temperatures were about 5 degrees colder, Cliff and I both agree that rooftops would have to be shoveled like in 2007-08.

In the mountains, there has been plenty of snow, despite some periods of rain. As of the weekend, at the top of Silver Mountain, there is about 5 feet of snow. So far, their seasonal total is close to 125 inches. At Lookout Pass, they are reporting over 50 inches of snow on the ground, but their seasonal total is slightly more than 200 inches.

The long-range computer models are still pointing to cooler temperatures with some snow around the middle of the month, despite more rain later this week. Assuming this pattern evolves, it’s likely to continue into at least early February. Unfortunately, some of this moisture in the lower elevations will probably fall as rain.

I have received emails asking why we’re seeing more rain than snow in the Coeur d’Alene area. Well, we do have the cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event along with low sunspot activity. However, this La Nina is different when compared to the one back in 2007-08 when we had all-time record snows across parts of the northern U.S., including North Idaho.

Ocean waters in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer when compared to those over 13 years ago. This may be influencing air masses to the warmer side as storms develop and pass over this region before moving through the Northwest. This current region of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures stretches from the Sea of Japan toward the West Coast of the U.S.

When we get storms from Hawaii, they are warm and give us a lot of rain. To get the snow in the lower elevations, our storms need to originate from the northwest or the northeast. When they come in from a more westerly direction, which has been the case for some of these systems earlier this month, it’s either rain or snow. But, with the warmer waters, it’s been all rain in the lower elevations.

Another factor that has changed is the Circumpolar Vortex. In October when we had the record snows, the vortex was over the western U.S. Since that time, it has migrated toward Europe as parts of the northern portions of Europe have been experiencing record snows. And, according to European climate scientists, the Earth’s temperature in 2020 virtually tied 2016 for the warmest in history. This warming may have also helped to modify these air masses.

In terms of this La Nina, the cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean, the event is likely at its peak. As we get into the spring season, La Nina is expected to weaken considerably toward a La Nada, the in-between cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino. Despite the weakening, this current La Nina is still expected to influence global weather patterns. Therefore, there’s still a good chance that we’ll start seeing more snow later this month and into the early-to-mid portion of February.

However, the chances of a big year with over 100 inches in Coeur d’Alene are fading fast. We’re not getting enough cold air to turn the rain to snow, but that may change, at least for a short time. The pattern we’ve seen in early January is not typical of La Nina.

But, at least our region is getting moisture. With the exception of the Pacific Northwest, mainly areas from Interstate 90 northward, much the western half of the country is currently experiencing moderate to exceptional drought conditions. Some of the worst areas for dryness include Utah, western Colorado, most of Arizona, much of New Mexico and western Texas. Thanks to rainfalls in December, California is currently under moderate to extreme drought conditions as most locations are reporting about 30 to 40 percent of normal moisture. Also, the rest of this month does not look favorable for a lot of rain or snow in California. Stay tuned.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com