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ZAGS TRACKER with STEVE CAMERON: Zags elite despite being mediocre from deep

| December 4, 2021 1:20 AM

Just for the record …

I hate the 3-point shot.

Sure, I’m dating myself, but I grew up playing hoops (at a pretty decent level), and the whole concept was to work for a good shot — preferably close to the basket.

Heaving shots from 25 feet or wherever was only for beat-the-buzzer desperation tries.

I truly believe that kids in high school and college these days become average to terrible free-throw shooters because they spend all their free time firing up 3-pointers from half-court, the bleachers, the concession stands and yada, yada.

One of most admirable things about Gonzaga’s long-term rise to the pinnacle of the college game is that the Zags score loads and loads of points — preferring to get them two at a time, the old-fashioned way.

The Zags want layups and short little jumpers in the lane, and they’ve been drilled to seek and find those shots.

SADLY, college basketball now has become overrun with guys trying to imitate Steph Curry — and they’re launching from deep without a thought.

There are some genuinely scary shooters, like Alex Barcello from BYU.

And you can find outliers …

Last weekend, we saw Duke’s 6-10 Paolo Banchero simply torch the Zags with 3-pointers throughout an unconscious first half.

The 3-pointer is a great equalizer, allowing teams that can’t handle the ball, or the pressure, or are getting killed on the boards, to stay in a game against a much better team.

All you have to do is fire up 3-pointers and pray that you have a hot night.

So where does that leave the Zags, and their own long-distance shooting?

Even a team that is routinely among the nation’s leaders in 2-point field goal percentage would need — theoretically, at least — to offer enough of a threat from behind the arc to keep opponents from clogging the lane, or leaving certain players basically uncovered.

FOR THE past few seasons, Gonzaga’s foes always had to account for Corey Kispert, who could (and did) kill them with 3-point daggers.

There were other deep shooters that preceded Kispert in that role, too, so Mark Few generally has had the luxury of letting his guys run their pass-cut-screen offense — knowing that teams that tried to cheat in the passing lanes or double-team the post would pay for it with 3-pointers.


The Zags have always WANTED to get their points with crisp offensive movement and intelligent basketball that produces layups — but they’ve routinely had 3-point shooters spaced here and there to keep you honest.

Now …

For all the talent on this year’s roster, there truly isn’t a proven 3-point shooter.

Not yet.

There are some players, like Rasir Bolton at 45.7 percent and Julian Strawther at 42.5, who look like they can light it up at will.

Their sample size is growing, too, with Strawther having put up 40 trey attempts and Bolton 35.

So, it looks OK on paper.

The problem?

Their successes have come in bursts, and there’s a lack of consistency that gets marked in red on a future opponent’s scouting report.

AS AN example, the Zags made just 10 of 40 shots from deep in their last two games (Duke and Tarleton State).

They’ve had 3-point results below 30 percent in four of their seven games.

That won’t scare anyone.

And yes, there are some players – guys who get plenty of minutes – that you could leave completely alone if they wander outside the arc.

Drew Timme, Anton Watson and Hunter Sallis have combined to ring up a gruesome 1-for-19 total on 3-pointers so far.

There’s something else for Few and his staff to think about, as well.

Point guard Andrew Nembhard is stuck on 30 percent from deep (9 for 30), and you think: “Wait, he’s a better shooter than that. He’ll come around.”

History suggests that he won’t.

Nembhard shot 34.7 percent as a freshman at Florida, but over the next two years, those numbers dropped to 30.8 and 32.3.

What you’re seeing now from Nembhard may simply be what you’re going to get.

Oh, and Bolton — with that gaudy 45.7 percent number he’s posted so far this season?

Resir’s previous three years of college ball returned percentages of 36.1, 33.6 and 31.4.

It’s interesting that both Nembhard and Bolton had their best 3-point seasons as freshmen, suggesting that perhaps they drew a little more defensive attention as they progressed.

AS FOR Strawther, we just don’t know.

He hit 32 percent of his 3-pointers last season, but played an average of just seven minutes per game — so the sample size is just too small.

Julian conceivably could go cold, too. He missed all four 3-point tries against Tarleton State.

Before you head for some headache medication, though …

I think it’s fair to suggest the news isn’t all bad.

For one thing, we need to add freshman Nolan Hickman to this mix.

Hickman is now playing almost exactly 20 minutes per game, and he’s hit 34.8 percent on 23 tries from downtown.

Gonzaga players and staff will tell you Hickman is even a better shooter than the decent numbers he’s put up so far, and his stroke seems to provide evidence of that.

FINALLY, all 3-point shooters are going to have way, way more success if they can catch the ball in space with their feet set.

Guys like Bolton, Strawther, Hickman and even Nembhard figure to benefit as this team plays more games and runs the offense more efficiently.

That’s especially true of the relationship Timme and Chet Holmgren build with each other and with the perimeter players.

Those guys obviously wonder …

“Will he cut to the basket or step back for a 3-ball in this spot?”

The more this team plays and practices together, the more automatic that decision (and its result) will become.

Perhaps, just perhaps …

The Zags can turn into a consistently sharp 3-point shooting team.

If that happens, they’ll become even harder to beat.


But, well …

I’ll still hate the 3-point shot.

Email: scameron@cdapress.com

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published weekly during the season.