Farmer's Almanac says we should see snow
It’s been brought to my attention from a number of weather enthusiasts and readers about the recent prediction from the Old Farmer’s Almanac. The publication has been in print since 1792 and continues to offer annual long-range forecasts for the U.S.
For the upcoming winter season, they're predicting that temperatures and precipitation will be slightly below normal across the Northwest. However, snowfall totals should be close to the average of 70 inches in Coeur d’Alene.
Our coldest weather, according to the Almanac, is expected to be in early to mid-December, late January and late February. For California, they're predicting a cooler and drier-than-normal winter, which would not be good news for the Golden State.
There's a competing Farmers’ Almanac that calls for a more “typical winter” in terms of temperature and precipitation for the Northwest. The central U.S. should have heavier-than-normal snowfalls. Their forecast for drought-ravaged California calls for near-normal moisture, but it won’t be enough to break the extended drought.
Based on current patterns, our predicted snowfall total for Coeur d’Alene and other parts of the Inland Empire should be close to normal.
I’ve been asked a number of times for my opinion of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and its accuracy. With the new edition recently hitting the newsstands, many have wanted to know if this publication is as “on the money” as its website states — an over 80% accuracy rate. However, it claims that its accuracy dipped to 77 percent last year.
Many forecasters find the high accuracy claims a bit hard to believe and almost impossible to accomplish. The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims to use “complicated” mathematical formulas, sunspots, planetary positions and even tidal patterns to forecast the weather.
The publication received a lot of credibility with its inadvertent forecast in 1816 of rain, sleet and snow in July. That was the year when the Indonesian volcano, Mount Tambora, produced a massive explosion and led to the “year without a summer.”
With an increasing need for more accurate long-range weather forecasts, and despite the huge strides in technological advancement in weather forecasting, many people still rely on their information. I have found that the perception of those who follow this publication believe it to be fairly accurate. I had many relatives who were farmers and swore to the Almanac’s accuracy. One could only imagine the conversations that went on, but it was all in good fun.
According to a five-year study conducted in the early 1980s by two research meteorologists, John Walsh and David Allen from the University of Illinois at Urbana, the final results of their study differed little from the mere flip-of-a-coin. They pointed out an approximate 51 percent accuracy for temperature and 52 percent correct as far as precipitation was concerned for the Almanac. A recent University of Illinois study says its accuracy was around 52 percent.
The study showed that the National Weather Service averaged about a 60% accuracy rating in “seasonal” outlooks published in advance. The private long-range prognosticators, believe it or not, received forecast ratings at near 70%.
Whether one considers the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts to be highly accurate or not, you have to give it credit. Its annual forecasts, especially the ones for winter, continue to make headlines and the publication has continued to thrive over the years in the media’s ever-changing environments. And, long-range forecasts are becoming more difficult due to the extreme weather patterns we’ve been seeing.
In terms of our local weather, Cliff and I believe that we’ve seen the last of the very hot days in Coeur d’Alene and the rest of the Inland Empire.
Despite the big change in the weather pattern to the cooler side, seasonal rainfall totals are still below normal. At Cliff’s station, our rainfall this month will be above the normal of 0.92 inches as he has measured 1.32 inches. The storm on Aug. 22 dumped an impressive 0.77 inches of rain at his station that led to some street flooding. However, other locations received less rainfall. Incredibly, only 0.02 inches of moisture fell from that system at Spokane International Airport.
Our weather pattern is still looking dry this week as temperatures are expected to warm up. As we get toward the middle of September, there's an increasing chance of rain developing across the Inland Northwest. Our region is still in a drought pattern, but we do expect to turn much wetter later in the fall season. In fact, we could see a lot of moisture later in October or in November.
Sea-surface temperatures are continuing to cool down in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. Normally, we wouldn’t expect to see any measurable snowfall until at least the middle of November. However, over the past two years, we’ve had early record snowfalls in October with measurable snow in September of 2019.
With the intense heat this summer starting earlier than usual, Cliff and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some early snows once again.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com