More heat in store; drought pattern holds firm grip

It’s certainly been a tough summer across North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire. On Sunday we had our 43rd day with high temperatures at or above 90 degrees at Cliff’s station in northwestern Coeur d’Alene. At Spokane International Airport, there have been 46 days with highs at or above the 90-degree mark.

From June 20 through Aug. 15, the first day of summer until Sunday, the average high temperature in Coeur d’Alene was 91.9 degrees, compared to a normal of 83.1 degrees for the same time period.

Although we will see some cooling in the next few days, temperatures should warm up into the mid-to-upper-80s late this week. The end of August and early September should have one more round of heat, so we expect to come close to 50 days with highs in the 90s or above for the summer of 2021.

In addition to the hot weather, it’s still been extremely dry. We did manage to get 0.17 inches of much-needed rainfall on Monday, Aug. 9. However, I have to admit that the chances for an above-normal total for moisture for this month are dwindling fast.

According to the long-range computer models, the strong ridge of high pressure is expected to dominate through at least the end of the month, probably well into September. There’s still a chance we’ll get some rain Tuesday and late this month or in early September, but drought patterns are very hard to break.

The western drought has expanded into the north-central U.S. Extreme drought conditions are being reported from Montana eastward across the Dakotas, Minnesota and northern Iowa.

The dryness in the Southwest has eased in recent weeks due to a good monsoon season. However, the southwestern U.S. is still reporting drought conditions. The lower elevations of California are experiencing “exceptional” drought conditions, the worst on the scale.

With the extended period of dry and hot weather in North Idaho, it’s also been a rough season for wildfires. As of the weekend, there are more than 100 large wildfires burning across the West that have consumed about 2.5 million acres.

Since June, there have been two dozen days with smoke in the air across the Inland Empire. Air qualities have also been awful, especially last week. Readings were in the “unhealthful” category with levels just below 200.

If we go above 200, then the air is “very unhealthy,” but over 300, it’s considered to be “hazardous.” There was one occasion when we went over 300 in North Idaho. That occurred in 2017 on Sept. 4, Labor Day, when the index hit 303.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, since July 9 with the demise of Hurricane Else, conditions were relatively quiet. This was largely due to drier air, dust particles and wind shear in the areas of normal development.

However, patterns are beginning to change and are becoming more favorable for tropical storm formation as we’re getting into the peak of the season. As of Sunday, we’ve already had seven named storms and one hurricane for the 2021 season.

Last year was the most active and fifth costliest Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history. There were a record 30 named storms that led to over $51 billion in damage.

Thirteen hurricanes formed last year. Six of those storms strengthened into major hurricanes, a Category 3 or higher. The strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. coastline last year was Hurricane Laura. The storm struck southwestern Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane, which was one of the strongest in terms of wind speed.

The 2017 season was the costliest tropical cyclone season on record with a price tag of over $282 billion. That figure accounted for about 25 percent of all the combined natural disasters in the United States from 1980 until 2017.

Thanks to a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern, Cliff and I see another active season, but not as many tropical storms and hurricanes like we had in 2020. We believe there will be 18 to 21 named storms with six to nine hurricanes. NOAA is predicting 15-21 named storms with seven to 10 hurricanes.

The official date the tropical storm and hurricane season begins is on June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Based on the 30-year average, there are about 12 named storms. Six of those storms become hurricanes with two of them in the “major” Category 3 or above.

Last year was the fifth consecutive season with above-average named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions. This year was also the seventh year in a row where a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed before the official start of the season on June 1.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com