Two-week forecasts and a little moon mania

For decades, Climatologist Cliff Harris and I have been providing The Press with short- and long-range weather forecasts. Most of the time, the forecasts have worked out pretty well, certainly better than a flip of the coin.

Recently, with some help, I put together a new daily 14-day weather forecast graphic that is now featured on The Press Facebook page and its website, cdapress.com. Sunrise and sunset tables, air quality and precipitation forecasts are also included. A 14-day forecast, especially after 7 days, is not an exact science, but should provide some insight of upcoming weather trends. And, I’ve noticed that the long-range computer models are doing a better job of forecasting trends beyond 7 days.

As I’ve mentioned in previous columns, many of our long-range forecasts are based upon the lunar cycles. Farmers have been planting by the moon for thousands of years. During the full moon and new moon cycles, upper-level winds will sometimes change as the low pressure troughs, or dips in the jet stream, become greater, which usually brings bigger storms in the mid-latitudes.

By contrast, high pressure ridges will amplify, bringing dry weather. During the first and last quarter lunar phases, the jet stream often becomes more zonal and storm systems are usually not as intense.

We humans owe a great debt to the moon as it literally stabilizes the Earth’s rotation. It’s about one-quarter the size of Earth. The moon also provides our seasons and has slowed Earth’s rotation. If our moon was smaller or non-existent, scientists say that our planet would have much shorter days. In fact, according to insidescience.org, if our planet did not have the moon, a day on Earth would only last between 6 and 12 hours. Instead of 365 or 366 days per year, there would likely be over a thousand days each year. Our world would likely look very different.

Last February, it was discovered that our planet had a “mini-moon.” The small space rock, which was about 3 feet wide, was orbiting Earth for about a year before flying back out into space. So, for a short time, we had two moons.

There is another mini-moon that is on track to enter the Earth’s orbit. However, this one may be some human-made space junk from an old booster rocket from the Surveyor 2 mission launched in the 1960s. This one is expected to hang around next month into May of 2021. In 2006, there was another confirmed mini-moon orbiting our planet.

One of the big myths about the moon is that there is a dark side. Actually, both sides of the moon receive the same amount of sunlight. However, we see only one face of the moon because it rotates on its own axis at exactly the same time it takes to orbit around the Earth. In other words, we see the same full moon every month as the same side faces the Earth. The only way we have seen the “dark side” is from a spacecraft.

The gravitational pull of our moon results in the high and low tides. However, scientists say that without the moon, our tides would be only about one-third of the size they are now. And, wind speeds would also change. Thanks to the moon, overall wind speeds on Earth are much lower and weaker. Without our moon, we could only imagine how strong they would be in a hurricane.

Our moon is also drifting away from our planet at about 1.5 inches per year. So, if we’re here in 50 billion years, the moon will be far enough from our planet to take about 47 days to orbit the Earth, rather than the current 27.3 days.

We know that the first man to set foot on the moon was Neil Armstrong from the Apollo 11 mission. The last person to walk on the moon was Gene Cernan in 1972 on the Apollo 17 mission. NASA is planning a mission with astronauts landing on the lunar South Pole by 2024.

In addition to the increased moisture, our area will often see its coldest weather in the winter and its hottest temperatures in the summer during a full moon event as the troughs and ridges become more pronounced. Some of our hottest weather in August occurred around the full moon and new moon cycles.

These cycles don’t work every single time, but we have found that they are reliable about 70 to 80 percent of time, especially in the Northwest. Those are pretty good odds.

In terms of our local weather, after the driest July 7 through Sept. 23 in history across the Inland Northwest, we finally received some much-needed rainfall. This week looks dry and warm, but it does look like we’re going to start seeing more showers late next week.

The rest of the fall season should turn wetter and cooler than normal as sea-surface temperatures in the south-central Pacific Ocean continue to cool down.