Wildfires, hurricanes — and a new La Nina

The wildfires in the West have made headlines across the world. About 100 major blazes rage out of control across much of the far West. Talking with my friends and relatives in California, there is ash everywhere. It’s on their cars, in their cars, in their homes and many can barely see the sun because the smoke is so thick. Here in North Idaho, smoke was also thick as the air quality on Saturday was mostly in the “hazardous” category with readings over 400.

Over 2.3 million acres have burned this year in California, which is an all-time record. The previous record was in 2018 when approximately 1.9 million acres were charred from wildfires.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, more than 4.5 million acres have burned in 12 states. In Oregon, huge blazes will likely lead to record losses of life and property. In Washington, over 500,000 acres have been burned from nearly a dozen major wildfires. Nearly 28,000 brave firefighters and support personnel are battling these blazes.

As of the weekend, there are about a dozen major wildfires in Idaho. There are approximately 16 blazes in Washington and 9 in Montana.

The National Interagency Fire Center data says that over 5.5 million acres have burned across the U.S. since Jan. 1. Last year at this time, there were nearly 4.3 million acres that were charred. In 2017, from Jan. 1 through Sept. 12, the number of acres consumed by wildfires was close to 8.2 million.

As I’ve been mentioning in previous columns, much of the western U.S. has been under a very strong ridge of high pressure. The lack of rainfall has led to severe to extreme drought conditions over much of the far West, especially California and the Desert Southwest.

Cliff’s records say that the period from July 1 through the middle of September has been the driest in recorded history in Coeur d’Alene. Since July 1, only 0.69 inches of rain has fallen at his station. That breaks the record, which was set back in 1913, for the same time period as only 0.83 inches of rain fell.

The high pressure system is expected to weaken this week, so we should see some showers in the Pacific Northwest. Next week’s weather looks dry once again. Based on the current weather pattern, it looks like we’ll have to wait until at least late September or early October before there is any significant rainfall in our region.

The long-range forecast models also point to drier-than-normal weather for the southern U.S. Last Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the arrival of the cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature event, La Nina, in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. Although this phenomenon is relatively weak, it could strengthen a bit in the coming months.

With a new La Nina being declared, the chances are higher for a snowier and colder-than-normal winter season across the north country. Many forecasters are predicting a harsh winter, and with the new La Nina and low sunspot activity, it’s possible that North Idaho may have another big snowy season. Remember, we often go from one extreme to the other.

A good example was in 2012. Despite no moisture in September, that year ended up the wettest year in history in Coeur d’Alene as a whopping 43.27 inches of rain and melted snow was recorded. The normal precipitation in Coeur d’Alene is 26.77 inches. As always, we’ll just have to wait and see.

In other weather news, we just passed the climatological peak of the tropical storm and hurricane season. However, activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters are still expected to be very active at least through October. So far, there have been 17 named storms. During an average year, there are six hurricanes that form. Three of the six hurricanes are usually classified as “major,” which is a Category 3 or higher.

The strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. was Laura with 150-mile-per-hour winds. Laura resulted in nearly $9 billion in damage, but nearly $15 billion in damage has been reported for the 2020 season.

The year with the most named storms was back in 2005 with 28, including Katrina. This year, we’re are slightly ahead of 2005, so it’s possible that we could see another record-breaking year for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters.

All the ingredients for this active season are still in place. We now have a La Nina along the Equatorial waters. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean are also warmer than normal. By contrast, when there is the warmer El Nino event, we often see a season of less tropical storm formation due to wind shear. Stay tuned.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com