‘Tenet,’ ‘Mulan’ and the state of the movie industry
Throughout the pandemic, two movies have acted as the measuring stick for how the film industry would navigate the post COVID-19 landscape. While the virus is here to stay for at least the remainder of 2020, Disney’s live-action remake of “Mulan” and Christopher Nolan’s hotly anticipated adventure, “Tenet” will finally be available to audiences this weekend in two very different ways.
Both strategies come with huge financial risk.
Due in part to Nolan’s insistence the film play in theaters, “Tenet” opened this week across the country… except where theaters are still closed because of COVID-19 restrictions. That’s a lot of places, including our neighbors in Washington state. Further, Warner Bros. added limitations to “Tenet” playing on drive-in screens in some locations.
The big question: Even where theaters are open, will people show up? The box office performance of “Tenet” will provide some guidance as to whether the remaining big-budget titles of 2020 hold their positions or jump to 2021. Titles still on the release schedule include “Wonder Woman 1984” (Oct. 2), “Black Widow” (Nov. 6), the James Bond entry, “No Time to Die” (Nov. 20), and “Dune” (Dec. 18).
“Tenet” opens much wider across the world in places where COVID-19 is more under control, and Warner Bros. intends on making back much of its budget on international ticket sales. So far, box office returns have been solid. Sorry America! Get your act together!
Disney’s “Mulan” has altered its release plan a few different times already, but after months of waiting for theaters to safely reopen, Disney finally jettisoned the film to its Disney+ streaming service. However, the film will cost $30 for viewers to acquire, in addition to their required monthly subscription to Disney+.
Some of Disney’s less expensive new releases went to Disney+ without a premium access fee, including “Hamilton,” “The One and Only Ivan” and “Artemis Fowl,” all movies originally intended for theatrical release. “Mulan,” on the other hand, apparently cost too much to justify a straight streaming release, as Disney also dropped significant advertising dollars on the movie ahead of its scrapped March release.
Is $30 too much to watch “Mulan” from home? It depends on how you look at it. For one, viewers “own” their copy for as long as they keep the Disney+ subscription, and if you divide $30 by the number of people in the house watching it, then the price per person compares more favorably to a theatrical admission. Still, $30? Really?
Disney likely won’t share verifiable data of how much they make on “Mulan,” but we’ll see if they decide to send more upcoming titles down this route. A monster budget Marvel film like “Black Widow” is still more likely to move to 2021 than play straight to Disney+, but Pixar’s November release, “Soul,” could be the next possible candidate for a $30 streaming release should “Mulan” perform well enough.
In the meantime, smaller budget movies will continue to release on VOD and streaming services… at least until the production delays of 2020 catch up with the release schedule. Middle-tier movies, like “Bill & Ted Face the Music” will exist both in theaters and on VOD, and that may be something we see well beyond the impact of the pandemic. Even before all this, theater were already being assaulted by heavy streaming competition.
Tyler Wilson has been writing professionally about movies since 2000. He is the co-host of Old Millennials Remember Movies, available anywhere you get podcasts. He can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com.
