Chance of white Christmas — 70%

It won’t be long before we’ll be in the final month of 2020 and many folks are wondering, “Are we going to see a white Christmas this year?”

Well, based on current weather patterns and the fact that we have a cooler than normal sea-surface temperature event, La Nina, in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, Cliff and I see about a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas across the Inland Northwest.

The last two years, 2018 and 2019, many locations in the lower elevations barely had any snow on the ground on Dec. 25. It was disappointing that downtown Coeur d’Alene and other areas didn’t have any snow on the ground for Christmas last year, but above 2,500 feet in Hayden and points north, these higher elevations did see enough snow for a White Christmas.

It’s all about elevation, elevation, elevation. In 2018, Cliff had slightly more than an inch on the ground on Dec. 25.

In 2017, there was over 5 inches on the ground as a storm system dropped 2.9 inches of snow on Dec. 25. November of 2016 was practically snowless in the Coeur d’Alene area. But, in December of 2016, a whopping 35.7 inches of snow fell.

On Dec. 25, 2016, Cliff measured 13 inches of the white stuff on the ground. In December of 2015, there was over 21 inches of snow on the ground.

That was during an El Nino year as ocean temperatures were warmer than average in the Equatorial regions. Big snowfalls in December during an El Nino year are not that common, but do happen about 25 percent of the time.

Our Christmas snowfall forecast predicts a high 70 percent chance or greater of at least an inch of snow on the ground across most of Canada and much of the extreme northern U.S. north of Interstate 90 on Dec. 25.

As frigid Arctic air pushes southward into the northern and central U.S., heavier snowfalls are expected from the violent collisions between the very cold air to the north and copious amounts of moisture from the North Pacific regions as well as the Gulf of Mexico. This is a big reason why Cliff and I see a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas in our region.

Elsewhere across the country, while much of the region from about I-90 northward has an 80 percent chance of snow on Christmas Day, there is a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas across New England.

Probabilities dip to 50 percent between Interstate 90 and Interstate 80, which includes most of Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, much of Nebraska, Iowa, northern and central Illinois, northern Ohio and Pennsylvania and New York state, but not New York City. The Big Apple has only a 30 percent chance of a white Christmas this year.

Cities and towns in the central U.S. near Interstate 70 eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states likewise have around a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on the ground on Dec. 25. Although we are in the cooler La Nina cycle, the southern U.S., including Southern California and the desert Southwest, are not likely to have any snow as we seem to be in a warmer temperature pattern across the globe, but anything is possible.

In other countries, much of northern Europe and northern Asia have a very good chance for a white Christmas. The northern British Isles have a 30 percent chance of a white Christmas, with a strong 80 to 90 percent probability of snow across Norway, Sweden and Finland in Scandinavia. From eastern Europe into Russia, there is a 60 to 90 percent chance for a white Christmas. Northern Italy has only about a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25.

In the meantime, we should have more rain and snow shower activity just in front of Thanksgiving. It looks like we’ll have more snow move into the region in early December, but don’t be surprised to see some rain mixing in.

The middle of next month, during the new moon lunar phase, also looks promising for additional snowfall. In fact, one of those storms could produce a lot of snow in the mountains and the lower elevations as well.

For 2020, Christmas Day falls in the middle of the first quarter, so chances are lower for snow to fall on Dec. 25. Hopefully, there will be enough on the ground to give us another white Christmas across the Inland Northwest. But, next year, I believe our chances will be much lower for snow on the ground on Dec. 25. As usual, time will tell.