Undecideds: a local rarity

This year’s general election has been called the most important election in our lifetimes. With so much on the line and the fate of our nation reportedly at stake, some voters are taking every available moment to make their decision and steer the course of their country's future.

“For the record,” Russell McLain of Coeur d’Alene said, “I voted for the $50 fee.”

McLain, the one-time candidate for state representative, had said he was still unsure which way he would swing on the proposed local registration fee as he waited in line Thursday at the Kootenai County Elections Office. Up until Thursday afternoon, he was, officially, undecided.

To be clear, an undecided voter is not someone leaning one way or another but who could be persuaded to change his or her mind. No, an undecided voter is exactly that: someone who has no discernible direction he or she will vote in a particular race. That designation has been the laser-focus of pollsters and pundits this and every election year, though typically for more headline-making choices than how to pay for certain transportation improvements around Kootenai County.

Nationwide, the undecideds have been intellectually dissected for decades to determine the nuts and bolts behind why they vote the way they vote. While that inquisition has usually been for presidential races, the pathology is equally important for smaller, local races, as well. For McLain, he made up his mind when thinking about the long-term impact he believes the projects will have on the town he holds near and dear to his heart.

“I was thinking of the city of Hayden,” McLain said. “Hayden is where I do all of my business. They need the help. And Dan Gookin is on the (Kootenai Metropolitan Planning Organization) board, and I trust him.”

Undecided voters in presidential elections typically narrow as we get closer to Election Day. The more time that elapses, the more opportunities undecideds have of making up their minds.

For example, in 2016, USA Today reported that 18 percent of voters classified themselves as undecided in August; that number shrunk to 11 percent in late September that year, to 8 percent by mid-October, and continued to shrink into the final week before Election Day.

While 2016 was considered a polarizing election, this year’s dueling presidential campaigns are even more so. USA Today had nationwide undecided voters at 5 percent on Oct. 20, a number that had roughly stayed the course since September.

That number is now down to 2 percent, however, the smallest on record this time of year. The vast majority of voters not only have already made up their minds, but they made up their minds long ago. This year’s crop of key voters is considerably smaller for presidential candidates to woo this time around.

Wooing voters, however, is a candidate’s job.

“(I) was undecided on sheriff,” Cody Huckins of Athol said, “until I read an interview (Justin) Nagel did. He got my vote.”

For Huckins, what moved the needle on his decision was when he found what he determined to be a solution to a common problem among undecideds: hearing an alternative voice that jarred him from voter fatigue.

"I really don't like that two of the people campaigning are spending most of their campaigns accusing each other of being from California," Huckins said. "I'd rather hear about what changes you will make and how you plan to keep local values."

But that isn't always enough to shake undecideds from climbing down from their fenceposts.

“No,” 18-year-old Jonas Little of Post Falls said. “I don’t know who I’m voting for in the sheriff’s race. I don’t know who I’m voting for in anything. I don’t even know if I’m voting.”

Little said he felt excited to cast his first vote in 2020, once he turned 18 in July. But now, he said, that excitement has withered.

“Everybody’s just so angry,” he said. “I kind of don’t want to vote. I honestly don’t know what I’m going to do.”

That uncertainty can periodically carry a voter all the way through the voting process. Former county clerk and current Coeur d’Alene City Council member Dan English described what he called the “empty ballot” voter, a phenomenon that seemingly transcends logic.

“Any county clerk will tell you that every election there are a number of ballots that end up with no votes at (all),” English said. “These are valid ballots from valid voters who came to a polling place, waited in line, got a ballot, went to the voting booth, put their empty ballot in the secrecy sleeve, put it in the ballot box, and got their names called by the poll worker that so and so has voted.”

Kootenai County Clerk Jim Brannon confirmed the phenomenon, calling it an extreme version of undervoting.

"That person just can’t get behind either of the candidates," Brannon said, "but they want to get credit for keeping their voting record intact. They don’t like the system, they don’t like any of the candidates, but they want to say they voted. It happens all the time."

While this might represent the extreme end of the undecided spectrum, it’s not the only math to consider.

Statistically, undecideds might actually outweigh decided voters. One of the defining characteristics traditionally given to undecided voters is that they eventually vote before time expires. Throw out that qualifier, and the field of available voters grows. According to data released from the Kootenai County Elections Office, only 63 percent of adults in Kootenai County were registered to vote in the 2018 general election. Only 47 percent of the county’s adult population actually voted that year.

(Those numbers will likely climb this time, however, as the number of registered voters has surpassed 103,000 countywide.) Still, through voter apathy, indecision or some other unknown, votes are out there to be had.

“I’m voting,” Little said, changing his mind as the interview ended. “I am.”

Precinct polling locations will open for voting and same-day registration on Tuesday, Election Day. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

If you're undecided, see the Kootenai County Voters' Guide in today's Press.