Could we be heading toward a new El Nino?
Conditions across North Idaho and the much of the Far West have been very dry since the middle of February. In Coeur d’Alene, since Feb. 17, only .08 inches of moisture has fallen. In California, no measurable moisture has been seen in San Francisco and Sacramento since late January. However, it does look like the Golden State will receive some rainfall over the next several weeks, but amounts are not expected to be heavy.
In addition to the relatively dry weather, temperatures have been above normal as well here in the Inland Northwest. Record warmth was reported on Feb. 28 as Cliff measured a high of 61 degrees. Last month’s snowfall was the opposite extreme of February of 2019 as only 5.7 inches was measured, compared to a record-smashing 56 inches in 2019.
The early days of March started off drier and milder than normal. However, weather patterns are changing as we head toward the full moon lunar cycle on March 9. The weekend storm cooled temperatures and brought rain and snow to the region.
I’m already receiving questions about the upcoming spring and summer season. Well, it looks colder with a chance of some snow toward the middle of the month. As of late Saturday, less than 61 inches of snow has fallen in Coeur d’Alene. Before the snowfall season is done, probably around the middle of April, we should end up close to the normal of 69.8 inches.
It’s been one of those seasons where the air masses have been too warm to produce the heavier snows in the lower elevations. And, much of our snowfall for the season was received around the full moon cycle in January.
Cliff and I believe that from the middle of March until the end of April, or into early May, we should have near to above-normal moisture and temperatures will probably be a little cooler than average. But, from May into June, precipitation totals are likely to turn drier than normal once again. Our upcoming summer season may be another one with less rain than average. Temperatures should also be a little warmer, especially when compared to the summer of 2019.
Since 2015, we’ve been in a pattern of near-to above-normal moisture in the winter with drier-than-average summer seasons. The “meteorological” winter of December 2019, January 2020 and February 2020 was above average once again, despite the drier-than-normal February. December of 2019 only had 3.37 inches and February had 1.24 inches, which mostly fell during the first half of the month. By contrast, January had a healthy 5.81 inches of rain and melted snow.
During the three months of meteorological winter, Coeur d’Alene normally receives 9.84 inches of rain and melted snow. For the last three months beginning in December, 10.42 inches of moisture was received. During the summer months, Coeur d’Alene averages 4.08 inches of rain.
If climatological history repeats itself, the summer of 2020 is expected to have precipitation totals below normal once again. Right now, our forecast for the summer (June, July and August) is expected to be around 3 inches. As usual, only time will tell.
Another reason why we’re expecting a drier-than-normal summer season are that sea-surface temperatures along the Equatorial regions are warming up once again, especially near the West Coast of South America. With the exception of a few slightly than normal regions of slightly cooler waters, the entire Pacific Ocean is having near to above-normal sea-surface temperatures.
Based on the current data, we are currently in a La Nada, the middle of the cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino event. Most models are forecasting La Nada conditions into at least the early to mid portion of this year. However, there are indications that we may head toward a new El Nino later this year. When ocean waters are warmer, our region often experiences a drier-than-normal summer season.
Recently, it’s been the case of “back and forth” with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier this year, ocean waters were showing signs of cooling. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next few months.
Weather patterns are still reflecting this back and forth pattern with very cold weather seen in the far northern U.S. and rain and thunderstorms to the south. The southern U.S. is already experiencing flooding and severe weather, which is an indication of warmer ocean waters. Last week, Tennessee saw one of the deadliest tornadoes in 7 years.
The cooling of ocean waters in late 2019 did help the disastrous Australian fires as flooding rains moved across the region. However, a new El Nino would not be good news for that continent as the warmer ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean often lead to more drought in that part of the world. Stay tuned.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com