It looks like we’ll have another wet year in North Idaho
It’s starting to feel more like summer here in the Inland Northwest as temperatures finally warmed up over the holiday weekend. On July 1, there was a record low maximum reading of 55 degrees at Cliff’s station. The old record was 60 degrees in 1955. The 55-degree reading was close to 25 degrees below average as the normal high in early July is 79 degrees.
Although our summer season is starting off on the cool side in Coeur d’Alene and surrounding areas, Cliff and I do see much warmer weather later in the month and into August. It quite possible that we could have temperatures near or slightly above the 100-degree mark in late July or early August. Despite the recent cool weather, officials are still predicting an above-normal fire season between now through September across much of the West, including North Idaho.
As I’ve been reporting for several months, the Inland Northwest has been in an overall pattern of wetter-than-normal weather, especially over the last 15 years. In 2020, we had a much drier-than-normal February and April, but a wet January, May and June pushed our rain and melted moisture total at Cliff’s station to 17.65 inches for the first half of this year. The normal for the first six months is 13.89 inches, so we’re doing very well in terms of moisture in Coeur d’Alene and much of the Inland Empire.
Since 2006, according to Cliff’s detailed records, Coeur d’Alene was wetter than normal for the first 6 months of each year, except in 2007 and 2009. Amazingly, the skies opened up in late 2007 and 2008 to give us the biggest snow year in history with 172.9 inches. The 2008-09 snowfall season was another huge year as 145.6 inches fell, but conditions turned much drier in the spring of 2009.
The wettest year in Coeur d’Alene’s history occurred in 2012 with a whopping 43.27 inches of rain and melted snow. Despite the big moisture year, there were two extremely dry months, which were in August and September. Only .23 inches of rain fell in August of 2012, exactly an inch below normal. In September, it was the driest in history as no measurable rainfall was seen. In fact, it was rainless from July 21 through Oct. 12, 2012, and yet it was the wettest year in recorded history. That year was a classic case of one extreme to the other in a very short period of time.
There were a number of years when our annual precipitation total would end up between 29 and 34 inches (108% to 130%) when the first 6 months of the year were around 17 to 18 inches (123% to 130%). Therefore, Cliff and I believe that our 2020 precipitation total is likely to be near 33 inches, or about 123% of normal. Coeur d’Alene’s seasonal precipitation average is 26.77 inches.
We also believe that the chances are good for another year above 30 inches of moisture due to the low sunspot activity and the cooling of the sea-surface temperatures along the Equator in the south-central Pacific Ocean.
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, about half of the computer models that forecast sea-surface temperatures are indicating that we may indeed see a new cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern develop in the early to mid fall. They have recently raised their outlook to a “La Nina Watch,” meaning that the odds are near 50 percent that we’ll see an increase of the abnormal cooling of ocean waters in the coming months. They also mentioned that additional cooling has occurred beneath of the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which would also enhance the probabilities of a new La Nina later this year.
The Climate Prediction Center in the U.S. also favors a La Nada, the in-between warm El Nino and cool La Nina, during the summer season, but close to a 50-percent chance of a new La Nina this fall. The latest data is certainly pointing to the formation of this cool-water event.
If we see at least a weak to moderate La Nina and sunspot activity continues to remain low as expected, it’s still possible that we’ll have another good season for snow across the Inland Northwest. And, yes, we could see periods of record snowfalls during the winter of 2020-21. Cliff also told me that Russian scientists are predicting a very harsh winter for the Northern Hemisphere, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. In the meantime, to keep the wildfires to a minimum, let’s hope it doesn’t get too dry and hot for too long this summer.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com