Various rankings are seeds for thought

No. 1

SPOKANE — Mark Few shook his head briefly, looked down, then added a second little shake.

The Gonzaga coach was addressing a question that, on the face of it, shouldn’t have been too difficult.

He was asked: “Is there really an advantage to being a No. 1 seed (in the NCAA tournament), or do you have roughly the same chance to make the Final Four as a No. 2?”

Few finally responded.

“I’m not really sure,” he said. “There are people with metrics and numbers from previous tournaments that suggest it helps to go in as a No. 1, but no seed is going to win you a basketball game.”

There are two reasons — right this moment — to place Few smack in the middle of the seeding conversation.

First, Few was one of the members selected from the National Association of Basketball Coaches to oversee a change in how the NCAA’s committee selected teams for its Division I tournament — and also how those teams should most fairly be seeded.

This all happened prior to last season, and NCAA administrators generally were pleased with the result.

Prior to 2018-19, the committee placing teams in the tournament basically used a ranking called the RPI (Rating Percentage Index), and then tweaked it depending on common sense and what they’d observed throughout the season.

However, widespread agreement cropped up that the NCAA tournament should not lean so heavily on the RPI, which tilts hugely toward strength of schedule.

For instance, Gonzaga’s affiliation with the West Coast Conference often doomed the Zags to a lower RPI than made any sense.

SAY WHAT?

As of this writing (Monday, Feb. 10), the Zags are 19th in the RPI rankings, and anywhere from Nos. 1-3 in virtually every other poll or ranking system.

Kansas, which has the strongest strength of schedule according to RPI, sits at No. 1 — which doesn’t seem too unfair, since the Jayhawks clearly are one of the country’s strongest teams.

Meanwhile, though, Baylor is No. 8 despite just one loss (Kansas has three) and a victory over KU on the road in the teams’ only meeting.

Bottom line: The RPI had to go.

Or, at least, be pushed into the background.

So, first of all, schools were divided into quadrants according to their records, and teams moved up by defeating higher-quadrant teams — especially on the road.

Other coaches in that NABC group suggest that it was Few who came up with the best ideas for measuring teams’ performance, and to prevent “outliers” from conjuring up great RPI numbers that weren’t deserved.

Few didn’t want the RPI tossed out entirely, but he became a champion of the idea that several other metrics could be combined to make the system more efficient.

Northeastern Coach Bill Coen, a member of that NABC, explained Few’s input this way …

“Mark Few brought up an idea of using a composite of all the various prominent indices, some of which have predictive qualities that could help identify the best teams.

“After consulting with many of the designers of these other metrics, the NCAA began to develop its own index that would incorporate the most current evaluation measures.

“With an improved sorting tool, and a tighter definition of a quality win, the hope is we now have a more accurate selection and seeding procedure.”

The new tool was called NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) and at the moment it seems the closest the coaches — and the committee that will make tournament decisions — can come to finding fair outcomes.

Committee members, of course, admit that there is room for “subjective” calls, or what has been known forever as the “eye test.”

REWARDS

That brings us to the second reason Few might be asked about the difference (or lack of one) between a No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the tournament.

There is a wildly unusual situation this year regarding the West Region.

When the NCAA did its first weekly “reveal” last weekend (showing off the top 16 teams and placing them in regions, if the season ended that day), Baylor drew the top seed in the South and Kansas in the Midwest.

But what to do with the West, where Gonzaga (25-1 with several big-time wins) was handed the No. 1 seed in a close call over unbeaten San Diego State (23-0).

The Aztecs were given the top seed in the East Region.

If the rest of the season played out precisely as the first look indicated, Gonzaga would play the first weekend almost at home, in Spokane Arena.

San Diego State would open in Sacramento, which is still in the neighborhood, at least.

But if both teams advanced, the Zags would play the West Region finals in Los Angeles, while San Diego State headed across the country to the East Region in New York City.

By the time you’ve hit the regional finals, all the teams are going to be tough.

So wouldn’t you get a nice advantage if your fans could get there and help the cause?

Follow along here …

San Diego State could still jump Gonzaga in the seedings, especially since the Zags still have to play at BYU (No. 33 in the NET), host Saint Mary’s, and then likely face one or both in the WCC conference tournament.

San Diego State basically does not have a decent team left to play, in the regular season or in the Mountain West tournament — No. 97 Nevada is the “toughest.”

But let’s say the Zags run that gauntlet and hold on to the top seed in the West Region.

If you’re San Diego State, wouldn’t you maybe be better off losing a game somewhere, dropping to No. 2 in the West and avoiding that trip to New York City?

The travel would be bad enough, but if the seeds play out, the No. 2 in New York would be Duke — which considers the Big Apple a second home.

The same scenario could apply to Gonzaga, by the way, if they lose a game and San Diego State cruises through their unbeaten season.

Few and his players would never “tank” a game just to improve their tournament landing spot.

As wing Corey Kispert put it: “We’ve got to beat them all eventually, anyway.”

But it’s still interesting that, in this case, falling to a No. 2 seed would have its benefits.

Who could blame Few for pondering outcomes, just for a second, before answering that question?

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Email: scameron@cdapress.com

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns for The Press appear on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. He also contributes the “Zags Tracker” package on Gonzaga basketball each Tuesday.

Steve’s various tales from several decades in sports — “Moments, Memories and Madness” — run on Sundays.