Hold your breath as storm season approaches
In about five weeks, the 2020 tropical storm and hurricane season will begin. The official date it begins is on June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Based on the 30-year average, in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters, there are about 12 named storms. Six of those storms become hurricanes with two of them in the “major” Category 3 or above.
Last year was the fourth consecutive season with above-average named storms in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions. Most of the storms were fairly weak and short-lived, but there was a total of 18 named storms and six hurricanes in 2019. However, there were five tropical cycles that formed in the Gulf of Mexico, tying a record the most storms in that region. Three of the four that made U.S. landfall last year came from the Gulf of Mexico.
The 2019 season was also the fifth year in a row where a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed before the official start of the season on June 1. The old record was four years in a row from the 1951 through the 1954 seasons.
In 2018, there were 15 named storms that led to eight hurricanes. Two of those hurricanes were major and caused over $50 billion in damages. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a very destructive year. There were 17 named storms and six major hurricanes. It was the fifth-most active season since records began in 1851.
The 2017 season was the costliest tropical cyclone season on record with a price tag of over $282 billion. That figure accounted for about 25 percent of all the combined natural disasters in the United States from 1980 until 2017.
The year with the record-breaking number of tropical storms and hurricanes was in 2005. There were an incredible 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes, including Katrina. Total damage from that season was nearly $172 billion.
To be classified as a Category 5 hurricane, “sustained” winds must be at least 156 miles per hour. Since 1851, there have been 36 hurricanes that reached Category 5 status. These hurricanes with that kind of strength occur approximately every 3 years. Amazingly enough, there only three of these hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. as a Category 5. In 2005, Katrina weakened to a Category 3 when it hit New Orleans.
For the 2020 season, the chances are good that we could see another year with above-normal named storms and hurricanes. As I mentioned in last week’s column, ocean temperatures are warmer than normal from the West Coast of Africa, where many of our tropical storms and hurricanes form, to the shores of the U.S. East Coast.
Despite the warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean, we’re currently in a “La Nada,” the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern in the south-central Pacific Ocean. With the ingredients favoring the development of tropical storms this season, many forecasters are predicting another active year, which would make five in a row.
According to the hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University, scientists predict that the Atlantic and Caribbean waters will see up to 16 named storms with eight hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes are expected to be “major” for the 2020 season. They also state that the odds are nearly 70 percent that at least one of those hurricanes will strike the U.S. coastline.
Cliff and I believe that there will be 15 to 18 named storms. We also think that there will be 7-8 hurricanes with 3-4 of them falling into the major Category 3 or higher status. Based on expected weather patterns later this summer and early fall, we believe that most of the hurricanes would ride up the East Coast, with a few forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
LOCAL FORECAST
In terms of our local weather, after a period of very dry weather, the rains returned to Coeur d’Alene and the rest of the Inland Northwest during the normally wetter-than-average new moon lunar cycle. Conditions are expected to be drier than normal during the late April and early May timeframe, but it looks like moisture will increase once again around the full moon cycle of May 7. Toward the middle to the end of May, the weather should be drier and warmer than normal.
The upcoming summer season looks similar to 2019 with below normal rainfall. However, there will be some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from time to time. We’re also expecting hotter weather, especially around the full moon cycles of early June, July and August. Last summer, our warmest day was on Aug. 8 with a high of 97 degrees. We think there is a good chance that we’ll have a day or two with readings at or above 100 degrees.
• • •
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com