Tough year coming: Virus impacts to hit Montana’s outdoor economy

Normally this time of year, Matt Swan is lining up his summer.

He’s a fishing outfitter and guide based in Park County, Mont., and normally this is the time he’d be planning his guided trips for the season. He’d be taking calls from people who found his website, or booking repeat clients.

Not so much this year. Fewer people are reaching out for trips amid the coronavirus fears. He’s also still waiting to hear whether a corporate ranch will have any business for him this year. It usually amounts to about 3/4 of his business. If the ranch doesn’t bring in any guests, that chunk is gone.

There is still hope that it will work out, but he knows that can change.

“It’s a wait and see,” Swan said.

That’s the position much of Montana’s tourism industry is in now as summer approaches amid COVID-19. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock issued a statewide “stay at home” order until at least April 10.

People whose livelihoods depend on bringing out-of-staters to fish, hunt or just look at wolves are seeing business grind to a halt. That leaves them wondering about the future.

Swan just bought a house and has a young daughter, and he’s bracing for a hit.

“I feel it will be a tough summer regardless of how this shakes out,” Swan said.

Norma Nickerson, director of the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research at the University of Montana, said it’s hard to predict how long this will last or how hard it will hit Montana’s outdoor recreation economy, which brings in $7.1 billion in consumer spending and supports more than 71,000 jobs.

National projections aren’t optimistic — the U.S. Travel Association is predicting a massive shut down in travel in the coming months that could cost millions of jobs.

It’s unlike anything the travel industry has seen before, Nickerson said.

“All new territory,” she said. “And nobody knows what to think about it.”

The institute surveyed about 400 travel business owners across Montana earlier this month. The results showed that more than a third of business owners had seen cancellations. Nickerson said the next few months are going to be slow, and that there’s hope it might pick back up again in June. Even then, though, she thinks travelers might be worried about flying.

“Down the line, it’s probably going to take a bit for people to finally feel comfortable,” Nickerson said.

A broader economic recession may create problems, too. Vacations are expensive, and it’s possible many people who had planned trips here won’t have the money.

Mac Minard, executive director of the Montana Outfitters and Guides Association, said that’s the impact that will hit people like hunting outfitters booking trips for the fall. That extends beyond the guide or outfitter, too, and into the towns with economies that depend on bringing people in from elsewhere.

“It’s a shared deal,” Minard said. “People are very upset; they’re very concerned. There’s a lot of stress.”

In the short-term, cancellations are killing an entire month or more for some businesses.

In Gardiner, near the northern border of Yellowstone National Park, wildlife watching companies would normally be taking visitors into the park to look for wolves and other animals this time of year. The park closure brought that option to a halt, but some companies had stopped tours even sooner with health experts advising social distancing.

Nathan Varley, who runs the tour company Yellowstone Wolftracker with his wife, canceled “everything in the near future.” They’re focusing now on making ends meet and keeping the business from going under.

He’s also keeping an eye toward the future, thinking there will be a time when his company can run tours again. He’s heard from some people interested in tours in July and August.

“We’re staying optimistic going forward that we’ll actually be back in business,” Varley said.

Guide John Way said his shop has had to cancel or reschedule all 48 of the float trips it had booked for the month of April.

This is the time of year he’d normally be booking trips for the summer, too, but the phone hasn’t been ringing much.

“We should be booking trips every single day for summer right now,” Way said. “You’re the second phone call I’ve gotten today.”

Way has been doing various promotions to boost the retail business. But that’s also fed by the outfitting business — clients buy things in the shop.

He’s sure business will pick back up, and he still expects to see clients he has booked for May and beyond.

“A vast majority of them still believe they are coming, that the world will look better,” Way said.

Trade groups have been trying to help their members navigate the choppy economic waters. Minard said MOGA put out guidance for its members on what aid options are available. He also said there’s a group of veteran outfitters mentoring younger ones on how to survive the downturn.

Mike Bias, executive director of the Fishing Outfitters Association of Montana, has similar resources available to his members.

Nobody was prepared for this, Bias said, and now people are wondering how long they’ll be going without income.

“It’s weird. It’s happening to everybody,” Bias said. “I think it’s going to be a tough year outfitting-wise.”

Guided trips don’t produce a ton of revenue for a shop anyway, Dan Gigone of Sweetwater Fly Shop in Livingston said, since much of the money goes to the guides who are typically independent contractors.

That’s where all this will really hurt, Gigone said.

“We’ll muddle through as best we can,” Gigone said. “I do feel terrible for the guides.”