Great winter forecasters: Squirrels, of course
Today is the first day of fall and we’ve already had a number of chilly days. Last Thursday, Sept. 18, readings didn’t even climb out of the 50s. The high for the date was only 58 degrees — 14 degrees below normal.
As our winter season creeps closer, many are still wondering if we’re going to see the big snow year that was predicted by Idaho Climatologist Cliff Harris. Based on the current patterns, there is a chance we could see another big snowy period this season, or the next one, that would rival the all-time record-breaking snows. During the 2007-08 season, Coeur d’Alene picked up a whopping 172.9 inches of snow.
We certainly got a taste of that snowy winter pattern last February. At Cliff’s station in Northwest Coeur d’Alene, an incredible 56.0 inches of snow fell during the second month of 2019. That smashed the previous February snowfall record of 39.5 inches set back in 1955. The normal snowfall for an entire season is 69.8 inches, so we picked up about 80 percent of our annual normal in that 28-day month.
Cliff and I are carefully watching the evolving sea-surface temperature patterns, the low sunspot activity, the indication of movement of colder air to the far north, as well as the position of the large high pressure systems that determine whether we’ll get that snowy winter pattern.
It’s also not a bad idea to keep an eye on some of the local animals. There are many signs, according to folklore, that may give us an idea of what we can expect for the upcoming winter season. For example, if the squirrels are gathering food much earlier than usual, perhaps around early to mid-October, then we may be in for a harsh winter. However, when squirrels eat nuts on the trees rather than storing them up for winter, the weather should be unusually mild during the November through March period, normally our frigid stretch.
The nests of squirrels may also be an indicator. If their nests are relatively low in the tree, then it’s believed that milder conditions are expected for the winter. By contrast, when their nests are high in the tree, then a very harsh winter may be right around the corner.
In my many years of weather forecasting, it seems to me that animals, and humans, are sensitive to upcoming changes to overall weather patterns.
For example, when I resided in California, my mother would complain of aching hands before a major cool down or a large rainstorm. She could detect these changes about 2-3 days in advance and her accuracy was uncanny. Once in a while, my right knee will ache just before a storm arrives in the region. (Yes, it could be age, too.)
I would also notice that my pets would become unusually hyper in advance of a major weather change. Other dog and cat owners would point out the same tendencies, especially just ahead of a thunderstorm’s arrival. On the other hand, when cats are friendly and purr and cuddle, it’s usually a sign of high pressure and fair weather.
Birds have been related to weather changes for thousands of years. They may indeed have something to crow about. According to weather folklore, when birds stop singing, rain and thunder are on the way. The same conditions will occur if birds huddle on the wires, or together in the trees.
By contrast, however, when birds flock together on the ground, it supposedly means fair weather is in store. When the rains end, they usually go after the worms brought toward the surface. Scientists believe that some species of birds are also sensitive to low-frequency noises that come from oncoming storms, especially large ones. Their ability to detect these sounds helps them get out of the way before the storm hits.
When it comes to livestock, sheep are the best weather forecasters. If they scatter about and climb the hills, fair weather will persist. However, if they huddle together like “flocks of birds,” bad weather is usually on the way.
In some parts of the country, people will look at ladybugs for weather prediction. Many have noticed that they will also huddle together, especially in homes when a big winter is coming.
As far as our local weather is concerned, there may be some showers across the Inland Northwest toward the end of the week. However, moisture totals are once again likely to end up below the normal of 1.48 inches. It does look like the chances for rain increase late this month and into early October.
As many of our readers know, Coeur d’Alene usually receives more moisture than Spokane as we are closer to the mountains. But, this month may be different. As of early Sunday, only .64 inches of rain had fallen in September at Cliff’s station. At the Spokane International Airport, a total of .95 inches of rain had been measured. Over the last few weeks, most of the storms have been farther to the west of our region, a pattern that does not occur very often.
- • •
Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com