White Christmas forecast

?We’ll soon slip into the final month of 2019 and many folks have asked, “Are we going to see a white Christmas this year?”

We’ve already seen three rare and early-season snowstorms across the Inland Northwest. However, since the last storm in October, no measurable amount of snow has been seen in November, at least through the last weekend, but that could change this week as there is a chance of snow showers over the next several days.

If we do get another white Christmas in 2019, it will be the fifth year in a row with at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th. Last year, there was an inch of snow at Cliff’s station and outlying areas, but the downtown area was too warm and no snow was seen. By the way, according to Cliff’s records, there have never been five white Christmases in a row here. This may be the year of breaking that record as well.

Weather patterns are finally changing in the far West. Much-needed rain is expected in California this week and we should see some snow showers and cold temperatures across North Idaho and surrounding regions. The recent milder and drier than normal weather pattern at this time of year actually increases the chances of snow in December as weather patterns migrate, especially over a period of six weeks. Therefore, as the dry and mild high pressure system weakens, the storm door will open.

As of late Sunday, Cliff had measured 6.6 inches of snow at his station while Spokane International Airport, a place that normally receives less snow than Coeur d’Alene, had picked up 6.9 inches.

Well, based on the changing weather patterns and the fact that we have extremely low sunspot activity as well as a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and the cooler La Nina in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, Cliff and I see at least a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas across the Inland Northwest.

Our snowfall Christmas forecast predicts a high 80 percent chance or greater of at least an inch of snow on the ground across most of Canada and much of the extreme northern U.S. north of Interstate 90 on Dec. 25.

As frigid Arctic air pushes southward into the northern and central U.S., heavier snowfalls are expected from the violent collisions between the very cold air to the north and copious amounts of moisture from the North Pacific regions as well as the Gulf of Mexico. This is another reason why Cliff and I see a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas in our region.

Elsewhere across the country, while much of the region from about I-90 northward has an 80 percent chance of snow on Christmas Day, there is a 70 percent chance of a white Christmas across New England. Probabilities dip to 50 percent between Interstate 90 and Interstate 80, which includes most of Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, much of Nebraska, Iowa, northern and central Illinois, northern Ohio and Pennsylvania and New York State, but not New York City. The Big Apple has only a 30 percent chance of a White Christmas this year.

Cities and towns in the central U.S. near Interstate 70 eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states likewise have around a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on the ground on December 25. There is only a 10 percent chance of a white Christmas across parts of the southern U.S. this year, but anything is possible in this cycle of wide weather extremes.

Although sea-surface temperatures are not as warm, the southern U.S., including Southern California and the Desert Southwest, are not likely to have any snow as we’re in a warmer temperature pattern across the globe.

In other countries, much of northern Europe and northern Asia have a very good chance for a white Christmas in 2019. The northern British Isles have a 30 percent chance of a white Christmas, with a strong 80 to 90 percent probability of snow across Norway, Sweden and Finland in Scandinavia. From eastern Europe into Russia, there is a 60 to 90 percent chance for a white Christmas. Northern Italy only has about a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25.

Northern Europe has already seen moderate to heavy snowfalls this season. For example, record snowfall has been reported in Switzerland this month.

Record snows have also been measured in Anchorage earlier this month. All-time record cold has also been felt in southern Canada as well as the central U.S. in November. On Veterans Day, Nov. 11, a month’s worth of snow fell in areas from Wisconsin to New York.

- • •

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com