It was a February for the record books in North Idaho
February of 2019 has come to a close, but there were many snowfall records broken in Coeur d’Alene and surrounding regions. Many residents of North Idaho are anxious for spring, as last month was certainly one of the toughest weatherwise in recent memory.
At Cliff’s station in Northwest Coeur d’Alene, an incredible 56.0 inches of snow fell last month. That smashed the all-time record of 39.5 inches set back in 1955. The normal snowfall for an entire season is 69.8 inches, so we picked up about 80 percent of our annual normal in February.
For the season, our current snowfall total for Coeur d’Alene stands at 87.3 inches. We will likely go over 90 inches and perhaps challenge another 100-inch snowfall season.
Before the winter of 2018-19 began, Cliff and I believed that we would see approximately 50 inches of snow in the region. During the early portion of winter, we were seeing storms that were producing a lot more rain than snow. It sure looked like our original prediction was going to be right on the money.
However, Mother Nature had something to say about our winter season. Late last year, sea-surface temperatures were warming up and it appeared that a new and warmer El Nino was going to be declared in early 2019. Our weather patterns were reflecting the warmer sea-surface temperatures as it was too warm for snow and we had also had several ice storms.
Then, sea-surface temperatures suddenly cooled enough to change the weather pattern. The huge polar vortex that brought all the frigid weather to the central portions of the country backed up over us and we started to get a flow from the cold, northerly regions rather than from the milder south. The weather pattern also coincided with a big 6-week weather cycle change that began during the first week of February.
Since the early 2000s, Coeur d’Alene and the rest of the Pacific Northwest has been experiencing some of the wettest years in recorded history. Despite some late spring and summer droughts in the region, seasonal moisture totals have been well-above normal. Therefore, Cliff and I believe that our part of the country is currently in a long-term cycle of wetter-than-normal years, especially during the winter and spring seasons. But, at some point down the meteorological roadway, that will change. We may see winter seasons in the Northwest with far-below-normal precipitation totals, but we don’t see that happening until at least the mid 2020s.
For the 2019-20 or the 2020-21 winter season, it’s quite possible that we could see snowfall totals in Coeur d’Alene around 200 inches. It’s not impossible and we are certainly getting enough moisture for this scenario to play out. For the 200-inch season, sunspot activity needs to stay low, which it will likely be based on long-term cycles. We also need the very important, La Nina, cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean. It was quite remarkable to see what kind of weather pattern developed when ocean temperatures cooled early in the year.
As far as February of 2019 is concerned, snowfall records were dropping all over the place. Cliff tells me that we had 19 days with snow, which was an all-time record. The previous record was just two years ago in 2017, when there were 17 days with precipitation. In 1955, the year when Coeur d’Alene received 39.5 inches of snow, there were only 11 days with snow. By the way, the normal number of days with snow in February is 7, with a normal average snowfall of 11.9 inches.
It’s also quite unusual, and perhaps amazing, that the snowiest months over the last 3 winter seasons was in February. For February of 2017, 2018 and 2019, there was a combined total of 111.8 inches. For the two months of January and February, Coeur d’Alene received over 72 inches of snow, more than the average for the entire season. The next highest total for a two-month period was in 2017 when 46.7 inches fell in January and February.
February of 2019 was the fourth-coldest in history. But we endured the longest coldwave in history, beginning on Feb. 3 and continued through early March. On the final day of last month, Cliff measured a record for the date of 28 inches of snow on the ground. At Spokane International Airport, there was 16 inches on the ground late on the 28th. The airport recorded 17 inches early in the day.
Cliff and I see more snow through the middle of the month. However, conditions should start to warm up later in the month and into April. And, precipitation totals are still expected to be at least near normal. The big concern is with all of the snow on the ground. If temperature do warm up quickly, then we can expect some unwanted flooding across the region. Stay tuned.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com