Wildfires have moved farther to the north this summer season
Compared to the last two hot and dry summers, 2018 and 2017, this one has been pretty nice. There have been only three 90-degree days in Coeur d’Alene thus far during the summer of 2019. The first one occurred on June 13 with a high of 90 degrees. Last Tuesday, the mercury soared to 97 degrees at Cliff’s station. It wasn’t a record, but it was hot. The previous record for the date was 105. On Friday, the high just barely made the 90-degree mark.
In early to mid August, Cliff and I believe that we’ll have more hot afternoons with highs at or above the 90-degree degrees. The normal number of 90-degree days in Coeur d’Alene is 11. If weather patterns continue on their present course, we should end up with 8 to 11 days with highs in the 90s.
June and July have been drier than normal across North Idaho, but not as dry as the last two summer seasons when very little rain fell. Last month, 1.62 inches of rain fell compared to the average of 1.93. July is also a little below normal as .62 inches has fallen for the month. July’s normal precipitation is 0.92 inches.
Precipitation in August should start to pick up toward the middle to the end of the month. Our average is 1.23 inches. The fall is 2019 still looks wetter than normal. In terms of the upcoming winter season, there is still a good chance for much-above-normal snowfalls across the North Country as we have low sunspot activity and cooling sea-surface temperatures near the Equator. We’ll see what happens.
Despite the slightly drier-than-normal weather this summer, temperatures have not been as hot as last year. In fact, readings have been mostly in the 70s and 80s. So far, the air quality has been very good in our region as we’re not seeing the massive fires.
Unfortunately, wildfires have been reported in southern Idaho. Last week, a lightning strike ignited a blaze that expanded to 90,000 acres in one day near Idaho Falls. The hot temperatures and dry conditions in the southern part of the state have led to six wildfires.
As of last Saturday, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center, there are about 16 large fires burning across the U.S. Over two million acres have been burned from these blazes. Believe it or not, not a single large wildfire is currently being reported in California. There have been a few smaller ones over the last few weeks. The majority are in Alaska with nearly 75 blazes. Arizona has about 10 fires with New Mexico reporting 6 blazes. As of the weekend, there are 4 in Washington.
Since Jan. 1, 2019, approximately 2.5 million acres have burned across the U.S. with a over 24,000 fires reported. Last year at this time, about 3.5 million acres were charred from wildfires. In 2018, the figure was over 4 million acres, so conditions are a little better this year. The lowest number of acres burned from blazes since 2010 from Jan. 1 to July 28 was in 2014 when nearly 1.7 million acres were charred. A year later, in 2011, about 6 million acres were burned from large fires.
The Arctic region has been ravaged with wildfires since June. Over 100 blazes have been reported across Greenland, Siberia and Alaska. Record heat has also been observed and average temperatures were over 10 degrees above normal in some of these areas. Smoke from these fires have covered over 2.8 million square miles in northern and central Asia. Although, wildfires are common in Alaska, the blazes have reached regions farther north than normal.
In the southwestern portion of Alaska, large wildfires burned approximately 500,000 acres in the past month. For the entire state, over 2 million acres have gone up in smoke. With no end in sight to the wildfires, it’s quite possible that 3 million acres could be burned.
The western U.S. is now moving into the hottest and driest parts of the year. Although, conditions have been much better in the western portions of the Lower 48 this season, the next 2-3 months will be critical.
On July 1, the National Interagency Fire Center updated its three-month outlook for the chances of wildfires across the country. It continues to show above average chances for significant wildfires in parts of the Far West through August.
Their updated forecast shows the southern two-thirds of Idaho expected to have a relatively “normal” fire season through September. However, the chances for wildfires are still high across northwestern Nevada, much of the western portions of California, northwestern Oregon, western and the northeastern portion of Washington and northern Idaho. Coeur d’Alene is on the southern edge of the region that has an above normal chance for significant wildfires into September. In October, the chances reduce to “normal” across much of the West, except in California.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com