Oscar predictions on the eve of nominations

After one of the more confusing award seasons in recent memory, the Oscars will finally announce its list of nominations on Tuesday, Jan. 22. The actual awards will be handed out on Feb. 24, and the Academy has opted to go hostless this year after the whole Kevin Hart debacle (if you don’t know, well, you’re fine).

I made my peace with the year’s movies last week with my Best of 2018 feature (the Jan. 12 edition of Coeur Voice), so now I’m strictly in prediction mode. What are the contenders? Here are a few somewhat educated picks on the major categories:

Best Picture

The Academy votes with a preferential ballot for Best Picture, and it can be difficult to understand. Basically, a voter ranks their favorite movies 1-5, then the numbers are crunched to determine a field of anywhere from 5-10 movies nominated for Best Picture. In recent years, nine seems to be the magic number, but you never know. For now, let’s go with nine as the target.

Sure Bets: “Roma,” “A Star is Born,” “BlacKkKlansman” and “Green Book” have hit enough of the necessary precursors — Guild nominations, Golden Globes, the British Academy Award (BAFTA) nominations — to be considered locks. “Green Book” has been hit with controversy lately (some old offensive Tweets by one of the screenwriters, attacks on its historic accuracy, etc.), but at this point it doesn’t seem like enough to knock it out of contention. I’m not a fan of the movie personally, but I’ve already come to terms with the fact that it will be nominated for Best Picture.

Likely nominees: Box office juggernaut “Black Panther,” critical favorite “The Favourite,” and “Vice,” another movie that’s actually pretty lousy, but apparently I’m wrong about that one too.

It never would have occurred to me that a movie (sorta) directed by Bryan Singer would be in the Best Picture race in 2019, but “Bohemian Rhapsody” has a Golden Globe win and nominations from the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. Alas, it’s getting into Best Picture, and if you don’t know anything about Singer and the behind-the-scenes turmoil of this movie, then a quick Google search might be your friend.

It could be just eight in Best Picture, but I’m really hoping Barry Jenkins’ “If Beale Street Could Talk” finds its way into the race despite an uneven performance on the precursor circuit. I just saw it a few days ago, and if I could remake my “Best of” list to make room for it, I would.

Other (less likely) contenders for a ninth slot are “First Man,” “Eighth Grade,” “A Quiet Place” or maybe even “First Reformed” or “Crazy Rich Asians” if things get wild.

Best Actress

Locks: Glenn Close for “The Wife,” Olivia Colman for “The Favourite” and Lady Gaga for “A Star is Born.” Close and Colman won Golden Globes and all three are nominees at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

Melissa McCarthy, despite her movie “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” being a lackluster performer even on the indie box office charts, also appears to be in good shape. A lot of pundits think Emily Blunt will be the fifth here after a career-best year (she’d be nominated for “Mary Poppins Returns,” but she’s also excellent in “A Quiet Place”). I like Blunt, but I’m hoping we get the best surprise of nomination morning with a much-deserved nod to Toni Collette in “Hereditary.” It’s still pretty unlikely, but I’m taking the gamble. A safer alternative pick for Blunt is probably Nicole Kidman for “Destroyer.” I haven’t seen that, but I have seen her wield a trident in “Aquaman.”

Best Actor

Christian Bale (“Vice”) and Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) will likely duke it out for the win (they both won Globes and are nominated at SAG). Bradley Cooper of “A Star is Born” could play spoiler though.

Then we’re down to three names for two spots: John David Washington for “BlacKkKlansman,” Viggo Mortensen for “Green Book” and Ethan Hawke for “First Reformed.” Mortensen has more precursor nods (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes) than both of them, but I’ll let my personal bias sink in here a little bit. The other two are just so much better in better movies.

If you’re looking for a lottery ticket choice, then consider Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”) or go crazy and pick Ryan Gosling for “First Man.”

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) should be running away with this, but her omission at SAG raises some alarm bells. Still, a nomination is safe. Next we have the two other terrific performances from “The Favourite” — Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone.

You want to know something crazy? Amy Adams (“Vice”) has never won an Oscar, despite several nominations. If King is vulnerable, it’s because voters think Adams is overdue.

The fifth slot here is tricky — Margot Robbie (“Mary Queen of Scots”) and Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) have SAG nominations. Claire Foy (“First Man”) has Golden Globe and BAFTA noms. Dark horses like Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”), Thomasin McKenzie (“Leave No Trace”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Crazy Rich Asians”) even have love. My gut says Foy, but I feel bad for passing on Blunt in the Best Actress race. Her “Quiet Place” role is definitely more of a lead performance, but maybe that works in her favor here.

Best Supporting Actor

I can see a scenario in which any of the names here could hit or miss. Safest bets are Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”) and Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”). When I saw “A Star is Born,” I thought Sam Elliot had this category in the bag, but it is admittedly a smaller, less essential part compared to some of his competition.

Adam Driver has the necessary precursors and is basically the co-lead of “BlacKkKlansman,” so that seems safe (ish). Timothy Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”) keeps appearing too, but the movie isn’t as well-regarded. Sam Rockwell is probably the best thing about “Vice,” but he’s only in about 10 minutes of the thing. It’s a long shot, but I’d like to see Michael B. Jordan get the final spot. His villain in “Black Panther” is the highlight of the movie.

Just for predictions sake, other categories, real quick:

Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”), Bradley Cooper (“A Star is Born”), Adam McKay (“Vice”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”).

Best Adapted Screenplay: “BlacKkKlansman,” “A Star is Born,” “If Beale Street Could Talk,” “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” “Black Panther.”

Best Original Screenplay: “Roma,” “The Favourite,” “First Reformed,” “Eighth Grade,” “Vice.”

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Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com