A similar solar cycle to 2007 and 2008
We’re moving into the second week of December and many are concerned about the recent lack of snow across North Idaho. It’s almost a case of “feast or famine” when it comes to snow around the region.
The Far West has been getting the moisture, but recently, much of it has been going to the south, or what falls in the Coeur d’Alene area has mostly in the form of rain. Around the middle of the month, the upper-level wind flow patterns should start directing colder storms across our region, which increases the chances for snow.
Cliff and I still believe that our chances for a white Christmas are still very good. However, when the snow arrives, it’s not certain if conditions will develop into a weather pattern with continuous heavy amounts of snow across North Idaho like in 2007-08 and 2008-09.
As we’ve mentioned in previous articles, to get conditions similar to those back in 2007-08 when we had the all-time record snowfall of 172.9 inches in Coeur d’Alene, the combination of at least very low solar or sunspot activity and cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean are needed. We currently have extremely low sunspot activity, similar to 2007-08, but sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are much warmer than in late 2008. I’ll have more on that topic next week.
Scientists have been closely watching sunspots on the sun, which are essentially solar storms that are cooler than the surrounding area of surface temperatures near 10,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Approximately every 11 years, the sun goes through a cycle when the its north and south poles switch places, changing the magnetic fields. This movement affects the activity on the sun’s surface, or the number of sunspots that appear.
Individual sunspots, or even groups of them, usually last from a few days to as long as a few months. They move across the surface of the Sun and often expand and contract. These “storms on the Sun” can be as small as about 10 miles to as large as 100,000 miles in diameter and generally travel less than 5 miles per hour.
We are currently in the sun’s 24th cycle since 1755, or solar cycle 24, which officially began in December 2008 and is currently in a transitional phase to solar cycle 25. A solar cycle starts and ends when the Sun’s activity is at its minimum. According to NOAA, scientists project that this next solar cycle will not only get off to a slow start in terms of the number of sunspots, but be well below average for the next 11 years or so.
I constructed the solar chart to show the solar cycles since 1985. Each year was averaged to show the cycle’s high and low. Since 1850, the highest annual average of sunspots was used to calculate the average region of solar peaks during each cycle. Our current solar cycle 24 was below that average and the same is expected for solar cycle 25. Some scientists believe that the next solar cycle will be much lower than NOAA’s forecast.
Since late 2008, there have been over 910 days that were “spotless” on the sun. The previous solar cycle, which was 23, began in August of 1996 and continued for 12.3 years, had a total of 817 days with no sunspots.
As of last Friday, there were 245 days in 2019 that did not have any sunspot activity. In 2008, there were 265 days and there were 262 days in 2009 without any sunspots, the time period with record snows across North Idaho and the other parts of the northern U.S. With just over 3 weeks left for this year, it’s possible we could rival the total in 2008, which was the fourth highest since 1850.
The year with the most spotless sunspot days was in 1913 with 311. The second highest was 287 days with no sunspots in 1901. There were 280 days in 1878, which was the third highest.
By the way, the year that had the most activity was in 1957 when 98,292 sunspots were observed. The most seen in one day was on Aug. 26, 1870, when 528 sunspots were reported. Also, when the sun is more active, the chances for solar flares increase, and, if strong enough, could damage satellites, electronics and even blow out transformers. The peak of the next cycle is expected between 2023 and 2026.
Despite forecasts of lower solar activity, it’s difficult to say what the overall effect it will have on our planet’s future temperature. Some scientists speculate that the Earth’s temperature may drop slightly, but readings have continued to climb during this current period of low sunspot activity. As usual, time will tell.
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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com