Old Farmer's Almanac gives winter forecast

It’s that time of year again when we wonder what the upcoming winter season will bring us. Many people still refer to the forecasts from the original Old Farmer’s Almanac. Their winter outlook calls for more rain and less snow and that much of the season will generally be warm and wet.

Cliff and I agree with their prediction, at least for North Idaho and surrounding regions. Based on the fact that we are expecting a weak, warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperature event, El Nino, to form in the coming months, snowfall totals for the Inland Northwest should be below normal levels.

Coeur d’Alene’s normal snowfall is a little less than 70 inches. For the 2018-19 season, we’ll probably see totals in the 50s. We’ll have a more detailed snowfall outlook in October. Despite the lower forecast, there is still a chance that we’ll have a White Christmas for the fourth year in a row. Based upon records since 1895, when there has been three back-to-back-to-back years with a White Christmas, there has always been a fourth. We’ll see how this year works out.

For the rest of the U.S., according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, California and the coastal areas of Oregon and Washington should see warmer and wetter weather this upcoming winter. The southwestern U.S., however, should be colder than normal with occasional moisture. Warmer and drier than normal weather is predicted for the U.S. Great Plains. The Midwest should be warm and wet as well as the Northeast. Much of the Southeast is expected to be warm and drier than normal.

I’ve been asked a number of times about my opinion of the Old Farmer’s Almanac and its accuracy. With the new edition, many have wanted to know if this publication is as “on the money” as their website states — an 80 percent accuracy rate. Many forecasters find that number a bit hard to believe and almost impossible to accomplish.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims to use “complicated” mathematical formulas, sunspots, planetary positions and even tidal patterns to forecast the weather. The publication was first developed in 1792 and continues to provide long-range weather outlooks.

With an increasing need for more accurate long-range weather forecasts, many people tend to rely on their information. I have found the perception of those who follow this publication believe it to be fairly accurate. I had many relatives who were farmers and swore to the Almanac’s accuracy. One could only imagine the conversations that went on, but it was all in good fun.

According to a five-year study conducted in the early 1980s by two research meteorologists, John Walsh and David Allen, from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, the final results of their study differed little from the mere flip of a coin. They pointed out an approximate 51 percent accuracy for temperature and 52 percent correct as far as precipitation was concerned for the Almanac.

Walsh and Allen used 32 cities, two each from the 16 various forecast regions of the country used by the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Spokane and Miles City, Mont., made the list.

The study showed that the National Weather Service averaged about a 60 percent accuracy rating in “seasonal” outlooks published in advance. The private long-range prognosticators, including our long-range weather service, believe it or not, received the highest accuracy ratings at near 70 percent.

However, whether one considers their forecasts to be highly accurate or not, you have to give them credit. Their annual forecasts, especially the ones for winter, continue to make headlines and the publication has continued to thrive over the years in the media’s ever-changing environments.

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In terms of our local weather, our drier-than-normal weather pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest as well as the rest of the western portions of the country as the strong ridge of high pressure dominates. Cliff tells me that the first two weeks of September have been one of the driest in recorded history.

The weather around the West has been so dry that nearly 90 big wildfires are raging. As of late Saturday, there were 15 blazes in Idaho and Montana and 13 in Washington. Approximately 1.3 million acres have burned from these current wildfires and more than 7.2 million acres have gone up in smoke across the U.S. since Jan. 1, which is very close to the 10-year average. However, it’s still one of the worst wildfire seasons in the western U.S. in history.

Conditions this week should be mostly dry, but there may be a few isolated rain showers at the end of the week. But, rain is still expected to increase around the “full moon” cycle of Sept. 24. The normal precipitation for this month is 1.48 inches and will likely end up a little below average.

Cliff and I still think that October and November’s precipitation total should turn to above-normal levels as more Pacific storms are expected to move into the region. October’s normal precipitation is 2.22 inches and November’s average moisture total is 3.07 inches. Snowfall totals may be below average in November if the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature event forms in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com.