Graduation rates: New numbers, old problem

By KEVIN RICHERT

Idaho Education News

After seven years, Idaho is making no progress toward its "60 percent goal."

Only 42 percent of Idaho’s young adults hold a college degree or professional certificate, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau numbers.

The 2017 numbers mean Idaho’s postsecondary completion rate has been stagnant for three straight years.

The numbers haven’t moved — despite two gubernatorial task forces, more than $133 million in new state spending and an ongoing drive from education, political and business leaders. The state’s leaders want 60 percent of the state’s 25- to 34-year-olds to obtain a degree or certificate. They say high school graduates need to continue their education in order to prepare for a modern job market, and help Idaho compete in a changing economy.

The new, and not so new, numbers

The Census Bureau compiled postsecondary completion numbers for 2016 and 2017. Idaho Education News obtained this data through the State Board of Education.

For both years, Idaho’s completion rate came in at 42 percent — identical to 2015.

Here’s a closer look at the breakdown, for 2017:

- 6 percent of Idaho’s 25- to 34-year-olds held an advanced degree.

- 20 percent held a bachelor’s degree.

- 10 percent held an associate’s degree.

- 6 percent held a professional certificate.

Like the overall completion rate, this breakdown has changed little since 2012.

The 60 percent goal is not purely an education metric. It instead measures the state’s 25- to 34-year-old population, said Cathleen McHugh of the State Board.

In other words, the numbers reflect the education background of young adults who stay in Idaho — or move in. It doesn’t include Idaho natives who move out of the state, with or without a college degree or professional certificate.

But that doesn’t change the fact that the 60 percent goal has been Idaho’s top education priority since 2010, when the State Board put the idea into the state’s political lexicon.

A high-profile and costly campaign

Armed with a Georgetown University study on the evolving market, the State Board announced the 60 percent goal seven years ago. Since then, the goal has become a touchstone of sorts.

Since 2013, Gov. Butch Otter convened two high-profile education task forces — one focused on K-12, one on higher education. In both cases, the groups were charged with coming up with policies to move Idaho closer to the 60 percent threshold.

And over the past six years, Idaho has spent more than $133 million on various initiatives to encourage high school graduates to stay in school. The money has gone into college scholarships, hiring college and career advisers, a fast-growing advanced opportunities program that helps high school students earn college credits for free, and "SAT Day," which allows juniors to take the college entrance exam at state expense.

Nonetheless, the state has been forced to push back the target date — abandoning the state board’s original 2020 goal. Now, the target date is 2025.

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Idaho Education News data analyst Randy Schrader contributed to this report.