The 2018 election and 'Swede's Law'

| October 19, 2018 1:00 AM

There is a very solid theory for deciphering Kootenai County politics.

It’s complicated now, so pay close attention as I explain the specifics.

Ready?

Good, you’re going to need a pen and a large notebook to transcribe all the intricacies of what we’ll call Swede’s Law.*

Explanation of that name has been forwarded to the Nobel committee — and it’s also at the bottom of this column.

Here’s the theory …

Republicans win.

Democrats lose.

Anyone want me to go over that again from the beginning? I know it takes some time to digest.

Actually, there are a couple of audience members in the back there who want to challenge my law.

Paul Amador and Rebecca Schroeder?

How can that be?

Amador is a heavily favored incumbent Republican, while Schroeder is a scrappy but decidedly underdog Democrat.

It’s easy to draw those conclusions about who’s favored, by the way.

Amador won his Republican primary in a race that drew 4,484 votes. His opponent in the general election for Position B in District 4, Shem Hanks, was an easy winner on the Democratic side with just 1,877.

Schroeder, who is considered one of the more “electable” Democrats we’ve seen in the county for some time, nonetheless faces daunting numbers: She totaled 2,050 votes in the Democratic primary for Position A in District 4, while Republican opponent Jim Addis polled 3,807.

SIMPLE: There are far more registered Republicans in District 4, although it’s the least “tilted” district in Kootenai County.

“It’s true that we have to overcome the math,” Schroeder said. “The only way to do it is to have good, effective answers when asked about your positions — and get out a lot of votes from people who stayed home in the primary.

“There are also a lot of unaffiliated or independent voters in the district, and I have to make my case to them.”

Amador is just as wary of those numbers as Schroeder is combative.

“I really hope my supporters take this election seriously,” Amador said. “It scares me to hear things like, ‘Oh, Paul’s going to be fine.’ Believe me, anybody can be beaten.”

Schroeder doesn’t think that will happen to Amador in November, however, and chose to run for the open seat vacated by Luke Malek.

“Paul and I actually are closer politically than you’d imagine,” Schroeder said. “Neither of us is driven by pure ideology. We’re more about what’s best for the state and our constituents on individual issues.

“Frankly, it made more sense to try joining Paul in Boise than running against him. But to win, I have to find another 1,500 votes — so I’m going after them.”

THERE MAY be some truth to Schroeder’s view of the two District 4 races.

Amador probably would be called a centrist Republican, and he is not exactly an idol of the Kootenai County Republican Central Committee.

It was the far more conservative — and committee favorite — Roger Garlock who opposed him in the primary.

“There is every reason for me to work like an underdog,” said Amador, a soft-spoken educator who works for the University of Idaho in Coeur d’Alene. “Look, 31 percent of people in the primary voted against me.”

Much like Schroeder, Amador often uses phrases like “balance” and “common sense” to describe where he stands on various policies.

Some of Schroeder’s critics say she’s a “one-issue candidate” because of her years of volunteer work on health care reform (she has an 11-year-old son with cystic fibrosis).

But Schroeder is also a trained environmental chemist with specialty knowledge of public lands, and has nuanced opinions on taxation, law enforcement and even how arts and culture affect the district’s tourism.

She can discuss the danger to Lake Coeur d’Alene in terms of nutrient impact caused by heavy metals at the bottom of the lake.

WITH NO disrespect to their opponents, both Amador and Schroeder seem like they’d be bright, capable legislators.

Each has a child who was important in the decision to run — Amador and wife Julie have a 13-month-old son, Peter, who was born during Paul’s first term as a state representative.

“It’s always a discussion about family when you think of public service,” Amador said, “but obviously, this time we had another issue — another little guy to consider.”

And of course …

Both Amador and Schroeder have been pounding the doors of District 4, and smiling a good deal of the time.

“I think the thing that always surprises me is what some people are willing to wear when they answer their door,” Amador said.

“I’ve seen robes, pajamas, a lack of most clothing entirely, etc.

“I’m just surprised that they’re willing to answer the door to a total stranger.”

Schroeder, who shares the pavement duty with husband Brock, also has a tale from the streets.

“I like to joke that I have met every dog in town through door-knocking, and I still haven’t been bitten,” she said.

“Who knew that running for office would mean that I’d get the opportunity to pet every Lab, corgi, and poodle in Coeur d’Alene?

“Often if the dog approves, the owner isn’t far behind.”

One Republican.

One Democrat.